Pushed to the Brink: Fragility and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
IMF Notes, April 25, 2025
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- Pushed to the Brink: Fragility and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Wenjie Chen, Michele Fornino, Vidhi Maheshwari, Hamza Mighri, Annalaura Maria Sacco, Can Sever
- Published: April 25, 2025
- Series: IMF Notes
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229008792.068
Key findings
- Sub-Saharan Africa is home to nearly half of the world’s fragile and conflict-affected states.
- Drivers of fragility include weak institutions and social cohesion, governance failures, and economic instability that trap millions in poverty.
- Some countries have transitioned out of extreme fragility by implementing sound macroeconomic policies, diversifying the economy, and strengthening institutions.
- Sustaining reforms is challenging in the context of erratic growth, political instability, exposure to natural disasters, and heavy resource dependency—which tends to heighten vulnerability to price volatility and governance challenges.
- Weak domestic revenue mobilization and declining aid further hinder development.
- Without reforms and continued international support, fragility risks worsening regional instability and economic disruptions with global repercussions.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Implement and sustain sound macroeconomic policies to support stability and recovery.
- Promote economic diversification to reduce heavy resource dependency and vulnerability to price volatility.
- Strengthen institutions and social cohesion to address governance failures and reduce fragility.
- Improve domestic revenue mobilization to finance development priorities and reduce reliance on declining aid.
- Maintain and coordinate international support to prevent deterioration of fragility that could produce broader regional and global economic disruptions.
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- Pushed to the Brink: Fragility and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa