Vanishing Contagion?

Author/Editor:

Paolo Mauro ; Tatiana Didier ; Sergio L. Schmukler

Publication Date:

January 1, 2006

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Policy Dicussion Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

While a number of emerging market crises were characterized by widespread contagion during the 1990s, more recent crises (notably, in Argentina) have been mostly contained within national borders. This has led some observers to wonder whether contagion might have become a feature of the past, with markets now better discriminating between countries with good and bad fundamentals. This paper argues that a prudent working assumption is that contagion has not vanished permanently. Available data do not seem to point to a disappearance of the main channels that contribute to transmitting crises across countries. Moreover, anticipation of the Argentine crisis by international investors may help explain the recent absence of contagion.

Series:

Policy Discussion Paper No. 06/01

Subject:

Economic integration Emerging markets Financial crisis

English

Publication Date:

January 1, 2006

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451946062/1934-7456

Stock No:

PPIEA2006001

Format:

Paper

Pages:

24

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