April 2005
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| Preface | ||
| Chapter I | Overview | |
| Chapter II | Recent Developments and Short-Term Prospects | |
| Overview of Developments in 2004 | ||
| Prospects for 2005 | ||
| Chapter III | Responding to Exogenous Shocks | |
| Impact of Declining World Cotton Prices | ||
| Impact of Removal of Textile Quotas | ||
| What Are the Policy Options? | ||
| Chapter IV | Sustaining Growth in Africa | |
| Explaining Differences in Growth Performance | ||
| Growth Accelerations | ||
| Policies, Institutions, and Growth in SSA | ||
| Conclusions | ||
| Chapter V | Making Regional Trade Arrangements More Effective In Africa | |
| The Effects of African Trade Arrangements | ||
| What Can Be Done? | ||
| Appendix (Tables A1-A9) | ||
| Statistical Appendix | ||
| Explanatory Notes | ||
| List of Statistical Appendix Tables | ||
| References | ||
| List of AFR Publications 2003-05 | ||
| Boxes | ||
| 2.1 | Transparency in Oil Sector Operations in Africa | |
| 2.2 | Pass-Through of Oil Price Increases to Domestic Prices | |
| 2.3 | Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Poor in Sub-Saharan Africa | |
| 2.4 | South Africa-Structural and Social Reforms | |
| 3.1 | The Impact of Quota Removal on Mauritius | |
| 4.1 | Growth Experiences: Uganda, The Gambia, and Nigeria | |
| 5.1 | Regional Trade Integration With and Without RTAs: The EU and East Asia | |
| Tables | ||
| 2.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Selected Indicators | |
| 3.1 | Share of Textiles and Clothing in Total Merchandise Exports and Share of U.S. and EU Markets in Total Exports, 2000-03 |
|
| 4.1 | Acceleration Start Dates and Per Capita Growth rates for 1980s and 1990s | |
| 4.2 | Differences Between Sample Averages for Acceleration Episodes: Own Past and Non-Episodes | |
| 4.3 | Differences Between Sample Averages: Sustained and Unsustained Accelerations | |
| A1 | Cotton Exports in Selected SSA Countries | |
| A2 | Subgroups of Countries | |
| A3 | Real GDP Per Capita Growth Performance Classification | |
| A4 | Real Per Capita Growth, Cross Fixed Capital Formation and Total Factor Productivity Growth | |
| A5 | Forgone Growth in Africa Relative to Other Regions | |
| A6 | Relative Impact of Robust Variables on Growth | |
| A7 | Changes in Real GDP Growth and Lagged Deficit Change | |
| A8 | Subperiod Averages for Budget Balance, Growth, and Domestic and Foreign Financing | |
| A9 | Country Classification by Financial Development and Growth Performance | |
| Figures | ||
| 2.1 | Inflation | |
| 2.2 | Commodity Prices | |
| 2.3 | Oil Importers: Change in Current Account and Fiscal Balances, 2004 | |
| 2.4 | Oil Importers: Change in Current Account and Fiscal Balances, 2004 | |
| 2.5 | Oil Importers: Changes in Nominal Effective Exchange Rates and Reserves | |
| 3.1 | World Cotton Prices, Monthy Averages | |
| 3.2 | World Cotton Production | |
| 3.3 | World Cotton Production, Area Cultivated, and Average Yields | |
| 3.4 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Textile and Clothing Exports | |
| 4.1 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Per Capita Growth | |
| 4.2 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Annual Inflation Rate | |
| 4.3 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal Balance | |
| 4.4 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Trade Openness for the Fast, Medium and Slow Growers of the 1990s | |
| 4.5 | Tariffs and TFP Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 1997-2003 | |
| 4.6 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Spending on Education and Health | |
| 4.7 | Financial Development of Sub-Saharan African Countries Classified by Growth | |
| 4.8 | Evolution of Economic and Political Institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa | |
| 4.9 | Objective Measures of Economic Institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2004 | |
| 5.1 | Intra-Africa Trade in Total African Trade and Africa's Share in World Trade | |
| 5.2 | Foreign Direct Investment: Net Inflows in Africa | |
|
WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS |
| Français |
| This first, annual issue of Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa analyzes economic, trade, and institutional issues in 2004, and prospects in 2005, for the 42 countries covered by the African Department (for data reasons, Eritrea and Liberia are excluded). Topics examined include responses to exogenous shocks, growth performance and growth-enhancing policies, and the effectiveness of regional trade arrangements. Detailed aggregate and country data (as of February 24, 2005) are provided in the appendix. |
Ordering Information
or
View Full Text (1321 kb PDF file) with the Adobe Acrobat Reader
Disclaimer
Contents
Preface
Chapter I
Overview
Chapter II
Recent Developments and Short-Term Prospects
Overview of Developments in 2004
Prospects for 2005
Chapter III
Responding to Exogenous Shocks
Impact of Declining World Cotton Prices
Impact of Removal of Textile Quotas
What Are the Policy Options?
Chapter IV
Sustaining Growth in Africa
Explaining Differences in Growth Performance
Growth Accelerations
Policies, Institutions, and Growth in SSA
Conclusions
Chapter V
Making Regional Trade Arrangements More Effective In Africa
The Effects of African Trade Arrangements
What Can Be Done?
Appendix (Tables A1-A9)
Statistical Appendix
Explanatory Notes
List of Statistical Appendix Tables
References
List of AFR Publications 2003-05
Boxes
2.1
Transparency in Oil Sector Operations in Africa
2.2
Pass-Through of Oil Price Increases to Domestic Prices
2.3
Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Poor in Sub-Saharan Africa
2.4
South Africa-Structural and Social Reforms
3.1
The Impact of Quota Removal on Mauritius
4.1
Growth Experiences: Uganda, The Gambia, and Nigeria
5.1
Regional Trade Integration With and Without RTAs: The EU and East Asia
Tables
2.1
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Selected Indicators
3.1
Share of Textiles and Clothing in Total Merchandise Exports and Share of U.S. and EU Markets in Total Exports,
2000-03
4.1
Acceleration Start Dates and Per Capita Growth rates for 1980s and 1990s
4.2
Differences Between Sample Averages for Acceleration Episodes: Own Past and Non-Episodes
4.3
Differences Between Sample Averages: Sustained and Unsustained Accelerations
A1
Cotton Exports in Selected SSA Countries
A2
Subgroups of Countries
A3
Real GDP Per Capita Growth Performance Classification
A4
Real Per Capita Growth, Cross Fixed Capital Formation and Total Factor Productivity Growth
A5
Forgone Growth in Africa Relative to Other Regions
A6
Relative Impact of Robust Variables on Growth
A7
Changes in Real GDP Growth and Lagged Deficit Change
A8
Subperiod Averages for Budget Balance, Growth, and Domestic and Foreign Financing
A9
Country Classification by Financial Development and Growth Performance
Figures
2.1
Inflation
2.2
Commodity Prices
2.3
Oil Importers: Change in Current Account and Fiscal Balances, 2004
2.4
Oil Importers: Change in Current Account and Fiscal Balances, 2004
2.5
Oil Importers: Changes in Nominal Effective Exchange Rates and Reserves
3.1
World Cotton Prices, Monthy Averages
3.2
World Cotton Production
3.3
World Cotton Production, Area Cultivated, and Average Yields
3.4
Sub-Saharan Africa: Textile and Clothing Exports
4.1
Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Per Capita Growth
4.2
Sub-Saharan Africa: Annual Inflation Rate
4.3
Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal Balance
4.4
Sub-Saharan Africa: Trade Openness for the Fast, Medium and Slow Growers of the 1990s
4.5
Tariffs and TFP Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 1997-2003
4.6
Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Spending on Education and Health
4.7
Financial Development of Sub-Saharan African Countries Classified by Growth
4.8
Evolution of Economic and Political Institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa
4.9
Objective Measures of Economic Institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2004
5.1
Intra-Africa Trade in Total African Trade and Africa's Share in World Trade
5.2
Foreign Direct Investment: Net Inflows in Africa
