Discerning Good from Bad Credit Booms: The Role of Construction


Giovanni Dell'Ariccia ; Ehsan Ebrahimy ; Deniz O Igan ; Damien Puy

Publication Date:

February 12, 2020

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Disclaimer: This Staff Discussion Note represents the views of the authors and does not necessarily represent IMF views or IMF policy. The views expressed herein should be attributed to the authors and not to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. Staff Discussion Notes are published to elicit comments and to further debate.


Credit booms are a focal point for policymakers and scholars of financial crises. Yet our understanding of how the real sector behaves during booms, and why some booms may go bad, is limited. Despite a large and growing body of literature, most of the work has focused on aggregate economic activity, and relatively little is known about which industries benefit and which suffer during these episodes. This note aims to fill this gap by analyzing disaggregated output and employment data in a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies between 1970 and 2014.


Staff Discussion Notes No. 2020/002



Publication Date:

February 12, 2020



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