World Economic Outlook

Financial Crises: Causes and Indicators

May 1998

A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
©1998 International Monetary Fund

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
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Assumptions and Conventions
Chapter I
198k pdf file
Global Economic Prospects and Policy Considerations
The Asian Crisis
  Advanced Economies
  Developing Countries
  Countries in Transition
  Appendix: Countdown to EMU--Progress Toward
    Convergence and Challenges Remaining
  1. The Role of Hedge Funds in Financial Markets
  2. Moral Hazard and IMF Lending
  3. International Monetary System: Measures to Reduce the Risk of Crises
  1. European Union: Convergence Indicators
  1. World Output and Inflation
  2. Nominal and Real Interest Rates in the Prospective Euro Area
  3. European Union: Average Inflation and General Government Balance
  4. European Union: General Government Budget Positions
Chapter II
314k pdf file
Global Repercussions of the Asian Crisis
  and Other Issues in the Current Conjuncture
  The Global Growth Outlook
  Prospects for Global Inflation (or Deflation)
  Implications of Recent Currency Realignments for
    Countries' International Competitiveness
  Prospects for Global Flows of Funds and Current
    Account Balances
  Outlook for Japan
  Emerging Market Countries: Selected Issues
  4. Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies
  2. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
  3. Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer
    Prices, and Unemployment Rates
  4. Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
  5. Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  6. Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  7. Recent Exchange Rate Movements on Bilateral
    and Multilateral Bases
  8. Developing Countries, Countries in Transition,
    and Newly Industrialized Economies: Net Capital Flows
  9. Gross Private Financing to Emerging Market Economies
  10.  Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
  11. Selected Latin American Economies: Macroeconomic Indicators
  12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Economic Indicators
  5. Selected Asian Economies: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates and Equity Prices
  6. Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps
  7. Major Industrial Countries: Indices of Monetary Conditions
8. Selected European Union Countries and the United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence
  9. Selected European Countries: Real Total Domestic Demand
  10. Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates
  11. Selected Advanced Economies: Inflation
  12. Advanced Economies: Inflation and Commodity Prices
  13. Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates
  14. Japanese Banking Sector: Selected Indicators
  15. ASEAN-4 plus Korea: Aggregate Trade Balance
  16. Paths of Output Gaps in Cases of Financial Sector Shocks
  17. Selected Latin American Countries: Short-Term Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
  18. Egypt: Basic Macroeconomic Data
Chapter III
182k pdf file
The Business Cycle, International Linkages,
  and Exchange Rates
  Business Cycles
  The Relationship Between Business Cycles and
    Exchange Rates
  Implications for Policy and Surveillance
  5. Evaluating Exchange Rates
  13. Major Industrial Countries: Business Cycle Indicators
  19. Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps
  20. Major Industrial Countries: Unemployment, Inflation, and Output Gaps
  21. Business Cycles and Output Gaps
  22. Three Major Industrial Countries: Real Effective Exchange Rates and Selected Relative Cyclical Variables
  23. Selected Major Industrial Countries: Temporary Dollar Appreciation Scenario
  24. Three Major Industrial Countries: Variability in Effective Exchange Rates
Chapter IV   
215k pdf file
Financial Crises: Characteristics and Indicators of
  Types of Crises
  Identifying Crises
  Origins of Currency and Banking Crises
  Currency Crises and Contagion
  Indicators of Vulnerability
  Stylized Behavior of Macroeconomic Variables Before
    and After Crises
  Early Warning Signals of Vulnerability to Currency Crises
  6. Resolving Banking Sector Problems
7. Effective Banking Prudential Regulations and Requirements
8. The Current Account and External Sustainability
  14. Selected Crises: Costs of Restructuring Financial
    Sectors and Nonperforming Loans
  15. Costs of Crises in Lost Output Relative to Trend
  16. Significance of Early Warning Indicators of Vulnerability to Currency Crises
  25. Incidence of Currency and Banking Crises
  26. Macroeconomic Characteristics of Currency Crises
  27. Macroeconomic Characteristics of Banking Crises
  28. Asian Currency Crisis: Indicators of Vulnerability
Chapter V
165k pdf file
Progress with Fiscal Reform in Countries in
  From Stabilization to Sustainability
  Transition and Government Revenue
  Transition and Government Expenditure
  Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations
  Legal Reform, Transparency, and Accountability
  9. Russia's Fiscal Challenges
  10. Pension Reform in Countries in Transition
  17. Countries in Transition: General Government Balance
  18. Countries in Transition: General Government Revenue
  19. Countries in Transition: General Government Expenditure
  20. Selected Countries in Transition: Scenarios for Fiscal Sustainability
  21. Selected Countries in Transition: Main Items in the
    General Government Revenue Structure, 1996
  22. Selected Countries in Transition: Registered Unemployment
  23. Selected Countries in Transition: Estimated Poverty
    Headcount and Poverty Deficit, in 1993–95
  24. Selected Countries in Transition: Main Items
    in the General Government Expenditure Structure, 1996
  25. Selected Countries in Transition: Life Expectancy at Birth
  26. Selected Countries in Transition: Shares of Education
    and Health in Total Employment
  Box 9. Russian Federation: Summary Operations of the General Government
  Box 10. Public Pension Systems in Countries in Transition
  Box 10. Countries in Transition: Public Pension Expenditure, 1993 and 1996
  29. Countries in Transition: General Government Revenue and Expenditure, 1997
  30. Countries in Transition: Government Revenue, 1997
99k pdf file
I. Transparency in Government Operations
  Why Fiscal Transparency?
    Institutions and Behavior
    Government Accounts
    Indicators and Projections
    Overall Trends and Priorities
    Role of the IMF in Promoting Fiscal Transparency
  II. Recent Developments in Primary Commodity Markets
    Effects of the Asian Crisis
    Effects of Weather
    Developments in Specific Markets
    Near-Term Outlook
  27. Price Declines for Individual Commodities and Countries Most Affected in Foreign Exchange Earnings
  31. Selected Asian Countries' Shares in World Consumption of Primary Commodities
  32. Commercial Stocks of Petroleum in OECD Countries
  33. Real Commodity Prices and World Output
380k pdf file
Data and Conventions
Classification of Countries
  List of Tables
    Output (Tables A1–A7)
    Inflation (Tables A8–A13)
    Financial Policies (Tables A14–A21)
    Foreign Trade (Tables A22–A26)
    Current Account Transactions (Tables A27–A32)
    Balance of Payments and External Financing
      (Tables A33–A37)
    External Debt and Debt Service (Tables A38–A43)
    Flow of Funds (Table A44)
    Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables A45–A46)
33k pdf file
World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–98