IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Hopes, Realities, and Risks, April 2013 -- Table of Contents
World Economic Outlook, April 16, 2013
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Bibliographic details
- Published: April 16, 2013
- Series: World Economic Outlook
Overview
- Publication: World Economic Outlook, April 2013.
- General summary: "Global economic prospects have improved again, but the bumpy recovery and skewed macroeconomic policy mix in advanced economies are complicating policymaking in emerging market economies."
- Two thematic chapter focuses highlighted in the overview:
- Chapter 3: examines the prospects for inflation, noting inflation was remarkably stable after the Great Recession and has become less responsive to cyclical conditions.
- Chapter 4: examines whether today’s fast-growing, dynamic low-income countries are likely to maintain momentum and avoid reversals that afflicted many such countries in the past.
- Ancillary resources listed on the page: Podcast, Database, Discussion Forum, Frequently Asked Questions, Subscribe, Email notification sign-up, Modify your profile, Download Full Text.
Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies
- Structure:
- Front Matter, Assumptions and Conventions, Further Information and Data, Preface, Foreword, Executive Summary.
- Major analytical elements and boxed topics:
- Boxes: 1.1 The Great Divergence of Policies; 1.2 Public Debt Overhang and Private Sector Performance; 1.3 The Evolution of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area.
- Table: Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections.
- Figures and indicators listed:
- Global Indicators; Current and Forward-Looking Growth Indicators; Financial Market Conditions.
- Specific numbered figures and topics: 1.4 Monetary Conditions and Bank Lending; 1.5 Financial Conditions Index; 1.6 Monetary Policies and Credit in Emerging Market Economies; 1.7 Fiscal Policies; 1.8 GDP Growth; 1.9 Overheating Indicators for the G20 Economies; 1.10 Global Inflation; 1.11 Global Imbalances; 1.12 Risks to the Global Outlook; 1.13 Recession and Deflation Risks; 1.14 Interest Rate Risk Scenarios; 1.15 Euro Area Scenarios; 1.16 Capacity and Credit in Emerging Market Economies; 1.17 Emerging Market Downside Scenarios.
- Supplemental files and special features:
- 1.SF.1 through 1.SF.11 covering commodity price indices, market volatility indices, energy and oil market analyses, food price indices, metals prospects, and related robustness checks (e.g., 1.SF.11 Declining Predictive Content of Commodity Futures Prices).
Chapter 2: Country and Regional Perspectives
- Structure: Tables and regional analyses.
- Tables enumerated (selected examples):
- 2.1 Selected European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment.
- 2.2 Selected Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment.
- 2.3 Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment.
- 2.4 Selected Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment.
- 2.5 Selected Middle East and North African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment.
- 2.6 Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment.
- Regional outlook highlights:
- World: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts.
- Europe: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts; Advanced Europe: Diminished Crisis Risks amid Prolonged Stagnation; Emerging Europe: A Gradual Recovery from 2012 Slowdown.
- United States and Canada: Slow but Steady Recovery; United States: Fiscal Developments.
- Asia: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts; Stabilization, Recovery, and Accommodative Policies.
- Latin America and the Caribbean: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts; Growth Supported by Easy Financing Conditions.
- Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts; Narrowing Differences in a Two-Speed Region.
- Commonwealth of Independent States: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts; An Improving Outlook with Vulnerability to Global Slowdown.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts; Continued Resilience.
- Special feature tables and simulations:
- 2.SF.1 through 2.SF.6 focusing on policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe, general uncertainty and confidence, and estimated effects of U.S. or European policy uncertainty shocks on real GDP, investment, consumption, and peak effects across regions.
Chapter 3: The Dog That Didn't Bark: Has Inflation Been Muzzled or Was It Just Sleeping?
- Central findings summarized:
- "Inflation expectations have remained strongly anchored to inflation targets during the Great Recession and the sluggish recovery."
- "Long-term inflation expectations in advanced economies remain close to targets despite wide variation in actual inflation rates."
- "Even in Japan, expectations remain close to the 1 percent target announced in February 2012 despite a prolonged period of deflation."
- "Coincident with greater central bank credibility, this anchoring is found to have increased over time."
- Supporting boxes and robustness checks:
- Box 3.1 Inflation Targeting Still Makes Sense with a Flatter Phillips Curve?
- 3.2 Measures of Current Economic Slack.
- 3.3 Current Headline Inflation Compared with Expectations.
- 3.4 Rolling Regressions of Inflation Expectations over Actual Inflation.
- 3.5 Inflation and Cyclical Unemployment.
- 3.6 Changes in the Inflation Process.
- 3.7 Robustness to Alternative Estimates of the NAIRU.
- 3.8 Actual and Predicted Inflation in the United States.
- 3.9 Unemployment and Inflation in Selected Economies.
- 3.10 Headline Inflation in the United States and Germany.
Chapter 4: Breaking through the Frontier: Can Today's Dynamic Low-Income Countries Make It?
- Core comparative finding:
- The chapter compares the recent wave of dynamic low-income countries (LICs) with the previous wave (primarily in the 1960s and 1970s) and finds:
- Important similarities: Both achieved stronger investment rates and export growth than LICs that were unable to takeoff.
- Striking differences: Today’s dynamic LICs sustained growth with much lower economic vulnerabilities than dynamic LICs in the past.
- Explanatory factors highlighted:
- Greater reliance on foreign direct investment than on debt-financed investment.
- Faster implementation of structural reforms.
- Annexed analyses, data and figures:
- 4.1 Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries, 1990– 2011.
- 4.2 Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries before 1990.
- 4.3 Crises and the Ends of Growth Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries, 1970–2011.
- 4.4 Explaining Growth Takeoffs in Dynamic Developing Economies.
- 4.5 Data Sources; 4.6 Economy Groups; 4.7 Logistic Regression Robustness to Alternative Specifications and Definition; 4.8 Logistic Regression Robustness to Alternative Estimation Methods, Full Sample.
- Empirical topics: Economic Performance of Low-Income Countries and Others; Frequency of New and Ongoing Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries; The Global Environment behind Low-Income Countries’ Growth Takeoffs; Real Output per Capita after Takeoff in Low-Income Countries; Economic Structure and Real Output per Capita after Takeoff in Low-Income Countries; Investment and Financing in Low-Income Countries; Macroeconomic Conditions in Low-Income Countries; External Competitiveness, Export Growth, and Diversification in Low-Income Countries.
- 4.9 Structural Reforms, Infrastructure, and Political Conditions in Low-Income Countries.
- 4.10 Investment and Financing across the Spectrum of Today’s Dynamic Low- Income Countries.
- 4.11 Contributors to the Changing Likelihood of a Growth Takeoff in Low-Income Countries.
- Country case studies: 4.12 Brazil’s and Korea’s Growth Experience during 1960–90; 4.13 Indonesia’s Growth Experience since the 1960s; 4.14 Mozambique’s Growth Experience since the 1990s; 4.15 Cambodia’s Growth Experience since the 1990s.
- 4.16 Macroeconomic Conditions for Non-HIPC-Eligible Low-Income Countries.
- 4.17 Aid and FDI Flows to Non-HIPC-Eligible Low-Income Countries.
Annexes, Statistical Appendix, and Data Products
- Annexe items:
- IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2013.
- Statistical Appendix with Text (Download PDF), Assumptions, What's New, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries.
- Classification and tables:
- General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification.
- Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2011.
- Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup.
- Table C. European Union.
- Table D. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings.
- Table E. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries.
- Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies.
- List of Tables Part A (select entries):
- A1. Summary of World Output.
- A2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand.
- A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP.
- A4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP.
- A5. Summary of Inflation.
- A6. Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices.
- A7. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices.
- A8. Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt.
- A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices.
- A10. Summary of Balances on Current Account.
- A11–A16 covering current account breakdowns, net financial flows, sources and uses of world savings, and medium-term baseline scenario.
- List of Tables Part B (Download PDF - available on the web only) includes extensive panels B1–B27 on labor market, productivity, financial indicators, fiscal balances, exchange rates, money aggregates, trade volumes, balance of payments, external debt, and medium-term scenarios.
Italic: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Hopes, Realities, and Risks, April 2013 -- Table of Contents
Content in this bundle
- آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي : الآمال والواقع والمخاطر؛ النص الكامل - ابريل 2013
- 2013年4月期《世界经济展望》: 希望、现实、风险
- Perspectives de l’économie mondiale : Espoirs, réalités, risques; avril 2013
- 世界経済見通し
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- IMF World Economic Outlook
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