IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy, April 2007

World Economic Outlook, April 11, 2007

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Canonical URL: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy, April 2007

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Bibliographic details

Published: April 11, 2007
Series: World Economic Outlook

Overview

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) reviews global macroeconomic developments, forecasts growth, and cites risks.
The WEO is "usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities."
Associated items and updates on the landing page include:
- World Economic Outlook Update — July 25, 2007
- World Economic Outlook Database — April 2007
- Video Presentations — April 2007 WEO Press Briefing
- Transcript of World Economic Outlook Press Conference — April 11, 2007
- Transcript of Press Briefing on the Analytic Chapters of the World Economic Outlook — April 5, 2007

Purpose and scope

Presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments:
- at the global level,
- in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.),
- and in many individual countries.
Focuses on major economic policy issues as well as analysis of economic developments and prospects.
Ordering information indicates the "View the Full Text of the WEO (use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader)."

Major analytic chapters and themes

Executive Summary
Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policy Issues
- Topics: Global Economic Environment; Outlook and Short-Term Risks; Cross-Country Spillovers: Can the Global Economy Decouple from a U.S. Slowdown?; Medium-Term Challenges: Can the Productivity Boom Be Sustained?; Policy Challenges
- Appendix 1.1. Recent Developments in Commodity Markets
Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives
- Regional focuses include: United States and Canada; Western Europe; Industrial Asia; Emerging Asia; Latin America; Emerging Europe; Commonwealth of Independent States; Africa; Middle East
Chapter 3. Exchange Rates and the Adjustment of External Imbalances
- Topics: Past Episodes of Large External Imbalances: An Event Analysis; How Responsive Are U.S. Trade Volumes to Exchange Rate Movements?; Implications for Global Imbalances
- Appendices 3.1 and 3.2 covering methodology, data, and econometric estimates
Chapter 4. Decoupling the Train? Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy
- Topics: U.S. Economy and International Business Cycle Fluctuations; Identifying Common Elements in International Business Cycle Fluctuations; How the United States Affects the Global Economy—A Model-Based Simulation Analysis; Summary and Conclusions
- Appendices 4.1 and 4.2 on econometric methodology and dynamic factor models
Chapter 5. The Globalization of Labor
- Topics: How Globalized Is Labor?; How Has the Globalization of Labor Affected Workers in Advanced Economies?; Summary and Policy Implications
- Appendix 5.1 Data Sources and Methods
Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2007
Statistical Appendix including Assumptions, What's New, Data and Conventions, Classification of Countries, and extensive tables

Analytical focus, methods, and data highlights

Econometric and model-based analyses across chapters, including:
- Event analysis of past episodes of large external imbalances (Chapter 3)
- Standard empirical trade model and estimates of U.S. trade elasticities (Appendix material; specific table references such as "Standard Empirical Trade Model: Estimates of U.S. Trade Elasticities" and "Error Correction Model for U.S. Imports, Sample 1973:Q1—2006:Q3")
- Dynamic factor models to identify common elements in international business cycle fluctuations (Chapter 4 and Appendix 4.2)
Extensive use of charts and boxes to illustrate findings, including numbered boxes and charts across chapters (examples: 1.1–1.4; 2.1–2.3; 3.1–3.3; 4.1–4.3; 5.1)
Statistical tables organized by topic, including Output (Tables 1–6), Inflation (Tables 7–11), Financial Policies (Tables 12–19), Foreign Trade (Tables 20–24), Current Account Transactions (Tables 25–31), Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 32–36), External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 37–42), Flow of Funds (Table 43), Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 44–45)

Key thematic policy concerns and analytical questions emphasized

Global spillovers and the possibility of decoupling from a U.S. slowdown
Sustainability of productivity gains and medium-term growth prospects
Adjustment of external imbalances and responsiveness of trade to exchange rate movements
Role of financial linkages and macroeconomic conditions in spillovers to emerging markets
Globalization of labor: impacts on labor shares, skilled vs. unskilled sectors, offshoring, and migration
Policy challenges for advanced economies and emerging markets in sustaining growth and managing vulnerabilities

Charts, tables, and empirical indicators (selected categories listed on the page)

Chapter 1 Charts: Global Indicators; Current and Forward-Looking Indicators; Global Inflation; Developments in Mature Financial Markets; Emerging Market Financial Conditions; External and productivity developments; Commodity and oil price indicators
Chapter 2 Charts: Country and regional developments including United States, Western Europe, Japan, Emerging Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe, CIS, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East
Chapter 3 Charts: Episodes of deficit and surplus reversals; indicators during reversals; trade flows and exchange rates
Chapter 4 Charts: U.S. recessions and regional real GDP growth; trade orientation; impacts of U.S., euro area, and Japanese growth declines on other regions; model simulations of global implications of U.S. private demand disturbances
Chapter 5 Charts: Measures of global labor supply; immigration and trade; offshoring by category; labor income shares and compensation; ICT capital and patents

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy, April 2007

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) -- Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy, April 2007

Source details

Other formats

Bibliographic details

Overview

Purpose and scope

Major analytic chapters and themes

Analytical focus, methods, and data highlights

Key thematic policy concerns and analytical questions emphasized

Charts, tables, and empirical indicators (selected categories listed on the page)

Content in this bundle

References