Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?


Willy A Hoffmaister ; Jorge Roldos

Publication Date:

January 1, 1997

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate


This paper compares business cycles in Asia and in Latin America using structural vector autoregression analysis with panel data. The evidence for countries in these regions suggests that (i) the main source of output fluctuations is supply shocks, even in the short run; (ii) the real exchange rate is driven mostly by fiscal shocks; and (iii) terms of trade shocks are important for trade balance fluctuations but not for output or real exchange rate fluctuations. However, in Latin America, as opposed to Asia, output is affected more by external and domestic demand shocks.


Working Paper No. 1997/009



This paper was prepared for the first conference of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (October 17-19, 1996, Mexico City, Mexico).


Publication Date:

January 1, 1997



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