Assessing Early Warning Systems : How Have they Worked in Practice?

Author/Editor:

Andrew Berg ; Eduardo Borensztein ; Catherine A Pattillo

Publication Date:

March 1, 2004

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly.

Series:

Working Paper No. 04/52

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

March 1, 2004

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451847284/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA0522004

Price:

$15.00 (Academic Rate:$15.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

45

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