Currency and Banking Crises : The Early Warnings of Distress

Author/Editor:

Graciela Laura Kaminsky

Publication Date:

December 1, 1999

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.

Series:

Working Paper No. 99/178

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

December 1, 1999

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451858938/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA1781999

Price:

$15.00 (Academic Rate:$15.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

38

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