Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress

December 1, 1999

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Format: Chicago

Graciela Laura Kaminsky. Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 1999) accessed October 6, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.

Subject: Banking, Banking crises, Currency crises, Cyclical indicators, Economic growth, Financial crises, Foreign exchange, Real exchange rates

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Banking Crises, Banking crisis, Banking fragility, Crisis time, Currency crash, Currency Crises, Currency crisis, Currency-crisis months, Cyclical indicators, Early Warnings, Forecasting currency, Foreign exchange, Global, Real exchange rates, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

38
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 1999/178
Stock No:

WPIEA1781999
ISBN:

9781451858938
ISSN:

1018-5941

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