Demographic Change in Asia: The Impacton Optimal National Saving, Investment, and the Current Account
IMF Working Papers, June 1, 2000
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Demographic Change in Asia: The Impacton Optimal National Saving, Investment, and the Current Account
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Authors: Ian S McDonald, Serge Bésanger, Ross Guest
- Published: June 1, 2000
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451853858.001
Authors and publication
- By Ian S McDonald, Serge Bésanger, Ross Guest
- June 1, 2000
- IMF Working Paper No. 2000/115
- Pages: 42
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451853858.001
- ISBN: 9781451853858
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Stock No: WPIEA1152000
Scope and objective
- Calculates levels of optimal national saving, investment, and the current account balance for five Asian economies—Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines—over the period 1997–2050.
- Uses a simulation approach to assess sensitivity of optimal aggregates to demographic change.
Methodology (simulation focus)
- Simulations incorporate changing demographic structures affecting:
- employment participation,
- labor productivity,
- consumption demands.
- Emphasis on how demographic variation across economies drives differences in optimal national saving rates.
Key findings
- Variations in prospective demographic change across economies cause considerable variations in the patterns of optimal national saving rates.
- The results are sensitive to assumptions about:
- employment participation,
- labor productivity,
- consumption demand and consumption-smoothing behavior.
- The paper quantifies optimal national saving, investment, and current account balances for the five specified economies for 1997–2050 (detailed numerical results are contained in the full working paper).
Subject and keywords
- Subject: Aging, Consumption, Demographic change, Labor productivity, National accounts, Population and demographics, Production
- Keywords include: Aging; Consumption; consumption demand; consumption weight; consumption-smoothing effect; Current Account Balance; Demographic change; Demography; Europe; Investments; Labor productivity; national saving; ratio; saving; saving pattern; saving performance; saving rate decrease; saving ratio; Savings; support ratio; wealth-consumption ratio; WP
Publication notes
- The Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy.
- Working Papers describe research in progress and are published to elicit comments and further debate.
Source: IMF Working Paper — "Demographic Change in Asia: The Impacton Optimal National Saving, Investment, and the Current Account" (June 1, 2000).