How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts: Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth
IMF Working Papers, April 1, 2000
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Prakash Loungani
- Published: April 1, 2000
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451849981.001
Summary
- This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998.
- Author: Prakash Loungani
- Date: April 1, 2000
- Two key results emerge:
- First, the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.
- Second, there is high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations.
Research questions
- The paper addresses five questions:
- (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries?
- (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions?
- (3) Are forecasts efficient and unbiased?
- (4) How does private sector performance compare with that of international organizations?
- (5) Is forecaster discord a reliable predictor of forecast accuracy?
Findings and insights
- Forecast performance is evaluated for industrialized and developing country samples over 1989 to 1998.
- Recession prediction:
- The record of failure to predict recessions is described as "virtually unblemished."
- Comparison with international organizations:
- There is a high degree of similarity between private forecasts and those of international organizations.
- Other thematic areas covered (as listed in subject/keywords) include:
- Balance of payments, Economic growth, Economic recession, GDP forecasting, Income inequality, National accounts, Private capital flows, Production, Production growth, Tax incentives.