Improving the Estimation Methodology of Monthly Data in Direction of Trade Statistics


Xiaoning Gong

Publication Date:

December 1, 1994

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate


The quality of the estimated data in DOTS depends on the availability and accuracy of direction of trade reports and the estimation methodology. Because of the low coverage of monthly reporting, the estimating procedure plays a role of increased importance. This study, however, reveals two deficiencies in current DOTS estimation methodology: The information on total trade in IFS is not efficiently used, and the assumed uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factor is inappropriate. Accuracy would be improved if IFS total trade were allocated, when available, according to the shares of total trade derived from partner data; and the uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factors were replaced by adjustment factors derived from historical data.


Working Paper No. 1994/142



Publication Date:

December 1, 1994



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