In Search of Coincident and Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Argentina

Author/Editor:

Alejandro Simone

Publication Date:

March 1, 2001

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Time series on economic activity in developing countries, in particular real GDP, are reported with important lags. Therefore, it is useful to construct indicators that coincide or lead the actual direction and level of economic activity. A general methodology to construct these indicators is proposed and adapted for Argentina. Three coincident indicators could be constructed, but no reliable leading indicator could be found. From an econometric standpoint, the coincident indicators produce satisfactory point estimates of real GDP. The series that enter the indicator are broadly consistent with what many economists believe is the main source of real GDP fluctuations in Argentina: shocks to the capital account of the balance of payments. This enhances the confidence in the econometric results.

Series:

Working Paper No. 01/30

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

March 1, 2001

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451844917/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA0302001

Price:

$15.00 (Academic Rate:$15.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

55

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