In Search of Coincident and Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Argentina
March 1, 2001
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Summary
Time series on economic activity in developing countries, in particular real GDP, are reported with important lags. Therefore, it is useful to construct indicators that coincide or lead the actual direction and level of economic activity. A general methodology to construct these indicators is proposed and adapted for Argentina. Three coincident indicators could be constructed, but no reliable leading indicator could be found. From an econometric standpoint, the coincident indicators produce satisfactory point estimates of real GDP. The series that enter the indicator are broadly consistent with what many economists believe is the main source of real GDP fluctuations in Argentina: shocks to the capital account of the balance of payments. This enhances the confidence in the econometric results.
Subject: Business cycles, Cyclical indicators, Econometric analysis, Econometric models, Economic and financial statistics, Economic forecasting, Economic growth
Keywords: absolute deviation, Argentina, Business cycles, candidate series, Cyclical indicators, Econometric models, estimation result, growth rate, leading indicators, model construction mechanism, point estimate, time series, unrestricted model, WP
Pages:
55
Volume:
2001
DOI:
Issue:
030
Series:
Working Paper No. 2001/030
Stock No:
WPIEA0302001
ISBN:
9781451844917
ISSN:
1018-5941
