International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics
IMF Working Papers, December 1, 1997
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- International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Eswar S Prasad, Jeffery A. Gable
- Published: December 1, 1997
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451858549.001
Summary and purpose
- Provides new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies.
- Presents a comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants.
- Constructs a measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles, with a focus on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries.
- Uses structural vector autoregression models to characterize the joint dynamics of output, exchange rates, and trade variables in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks.
Key findings and analytical approach
- Stylized facts: detailed characterization of fluctuations in trade variables and determinants across OECD industrial economies (as phrased in the source).
- Quantitative importance: a constructed measure assessing how international trade contributes to the propagation of domestic business cycles and to cyclical recoveries.
- Econometric characterization: use of structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models to analyze joint dynamics of output, exchange rates, and trade variables under different macroeconomic shocks.
Subjects and keywords (as listed)
- Subjects: Business cycles, Economic growth, Exchange rates, Exports, Foreign exchange, International trade, Real exchange rates, Trade balance
- Keywords: business cycle recovery, business cycles, demand condition, exchange rate depreciation, exchange rates, Exports, Global, merchandise trade number, net trade balance, OECD industrial economies, Real exchange rates, supply shock, trade, Trade balance, trade balance fluctuation, trade balance to output growth, trade dynamics, trade ratio, trade variable, trade volume, trade-weighted average, WP
Notes and provenance
- Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 3, September 1998.
- Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
IMF Working Papers — International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics
Content in this bundle
- International Evidence on the Determinants of Trade Dynamics - WP/97/172