What Have We Learned About Estimating the Demand for Money? a Multicountry Evaluation of Some New Approaches


George S Tavlas ; James M. Boughton

Publication Date:

February 1, 1991

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate


This paper provides estimates of the demand for both narrow and broad monetary aggregates for the five largest industrial countries using two recent approaches: buffer stock and error correction models. The performances of these models are compared with several versions of the conventional partial adjustment model. Tests are performed in order to evaluate the parameter stability, post-sample predictive ability, encompassing properties, and economic implications of the models. The results are encouraging with respect to the newer models, as they significantly outperform the traditional approach. It is found that the error correction model is especially promising as a general approach.


Working Paper No. 1991/016



Publication Date:

February 1, 1991



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