Why India Can Grow At 7 Percent a Year or More: Projections and Reflections

July 1, 2004

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Using a simple growth accounting framework, we project India's future potential output growth rate through 2025. We argue that there is perhaps more upside potential than downside risks to our central estimate of annual growth, which is close to 7 percent for aggregate output, or 5.5 percent for output per capita.

Subject: Expenditure, Human capital, Labor, Production, Productivity, Public expenditure review, Total factor productivity

Keywords: dependency ratio, East Asia, economic growth performance, government debt-to-GDP ratio, Growth, Human capital, India, India's underrated strength, institutions, level of TFP, Middle East, per capita income, portraying India, Productivity, Public expenditure review, Total factor productivity, WP

Pages:
17
Volume:
2004
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451854114.001
Issue:
118
Series:
Working Paper No. 2004/118
Stock No:
WPIEA1182004
ISBN:
9781451854114
ISSN:
1018-5941

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