Will there Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa b+L2280y the Year 2020?

Author/Editor:

Jean-Claude Berthélemy ; Ludvig Söderling

Publication Date:

August 1, 2002

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper examines past African growth experience and attempts to simulate future ones. In addition to more commonly used determinants of total factor productivity, a measure of the effect of labor reallocation and an index of economic diversification are constructed and included as factors for long-term growth. A simple model is constructed for the purpose of simulating growth scenarios up to the year 2020 for Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Tanzania, and Uganda. Even if one makes relatively optimistic assumptions, Africa is not likely to reach "Asian tiger" levels of growth. The results also suggest that growth will depend, to a large extent, on educational investments and productivity gains in agriculture.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2002/131

Subject:

Education Exports Human capital International trade Labor Production Total factor productivity

English

Publication Date:

August 1, 2002

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451855296/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA1312002

Pages:

37

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