A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers : The Case of Poland and the Euro Area

Author/Editor:

Michal Andrle ; Roberto Garcia-Saltos ; Giang Ho

Publication Date:

October 17, 2014

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper studies economic and financial spillovers from the euro area to Poland in a two-country semi-structural model. The model incorporates various channels of macrofinancial linkages and cross-border spillovers. We parameterize the model through an extensive calibration process, and provide a wide range of model properties and evaluation exercises. Simulation results suggest a prominent role of foreign demand shocks (euro area and global) in driving Poland’s output, inflation and interest rate dynamics, particularly in recent years. Our model also has the capability for medium-term conditional forecasting and policy analysis.

Series:

Working Paper No. 14/186

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

October 17, 2014

ISBN/ISSN:

9781498381819/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2014186

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

50

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