A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices
December 1, 2008
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Summary
This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
Subject: Inflation, Oil prices, Output gap, Potential output, Real exchange rates
Keywords: exchange rate, real interest rate, WP
Pages:
74
Volume:
2008
DOI:
Issue:
280
Series:
Working Paper No. 2008/280
Stock No:
WPIEA2008280
ISBN:
9781451871388
ISSN:
1018-5941
