Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

Author/Editor:

Roberto Garcia-Saltos ; Douglas Laxton ; Michal Andrle ; Haris Munandar ; Charles Freedman ; Danny Hermawan

Publication Date:

November 1, 2009

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2009/253

Subject:

Inflation Output gap Real exchange rates Real interest rates Short term interest rates

Frequency:

Biannually

English

Publication Date:

November 1, 2009

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451941715/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2009253

Pages:

57

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