Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend
IMF Working Papers, August 5, 2014
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- Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Paulo Drummond, Vimal V Thakoor, Shu Yu
- Published: August 5, 2014
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498379878.001
Summary
- Africa will account for 80 percent of the projected 4 billion increase in the global population by 2100.
- The accompanying increase in its working age population creates a window of opportunity which, if properly harnessed, can translate into higher growth and yield a demographic dividend.
- The paper quantifies the potential demographic dividend based on the experience of other regions.
- The dividend will vary across countries, depending on factors such as the initial working age population and the speed and magnitude of demographic transition.
- It will be critical to ensure that supportive policies, including those fostering human capital accumulation and job creation, are in place to translate this opportunity into concrete economic growth.
Key Findings and Concepts
- Demographic drivers:
- Africa’s share of global population growth: 80 percent of a projected 4 billion increase by 2100.
- Increase in working age population is central to potential dividend.
- Cross-country variation:
- The magnitude and timing of the dividend depend on each country’s initial working age population and the speed and magnitude of demographic transition.
- Methodology:
- The potential dividend is quantified using comparisons with the experience of other regions (panel estimates and related empirical approaches are referenced in keywords).
Policy Recommendations
- Foster human capital accumulation through investments in education and related areas.
- Promote job creation to absorb expanding working age populations.
- Implement supportive policies that ensure demographic changes translate into higher real GDP and sustained economic growth.
Publication and Metadata
- Authors: Paulo Drummond, Vimal V Thakoor, Shu Yu
- Date: August 5, 2014
- Series: Working Paper No. 2014/143
- Issue: 143
- Pages: 22
- Volume: 2014
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498379878.001
- ISBN: 9781498379878
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Subjects: Aging, Demographic change, Education, Labor, Labor force participation, Population and demographics
- Keywords: Africa, age population, age share, Aging, Asia and Pacific, Demographic change, Demographic Dividend, Economic Growth, estimation result, GDP growth, Labor force participation, North America, Northern Europe, Panel Estimates, real GDP, share matter, Sub-Saharan Africa, working age share, WP
Content derived from the IMF Working Paper "Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend".