Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?

Author/Editor:

Anne Oeking ; Mariusz A. Sumlinski

Publication Date:

November 16, 2016

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

In this paper, we consider incidences of arrears to the IMF, focusing on protracted arrears cases and attempt to identify determinants of their occurrence. We use narrative and formal methods. In addition, we analyze determinants of the duration of arrears. We find that previous arrears, reserves coverage, and institutional quality are among the main determinants of arrears. In addition, we identify a role for political developments, including civil unrest, which make arrears more likely to arise and to last longer. We conclude that improved macroeconomic conditions and turnaround of political fortunes would help to clear the currently remaining protracted arrears cases.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2016/225

Subject:

Arrears Commodity price indexes Credit Econometric analysis External debt Logit models Money Prices

English

Publication Date:

November 16, 2016

ISBN/ISSN:

9781475554823/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2016225

Pages:

40

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