Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets: Propeller of Growth?
IMF Working Papers, September 29, 2015
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- Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets: Propeller of Growth?
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Fei Han
- Published: September 29, 2015
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513581927.001
Key findings
- Credit growth has a significant impact on real GDP growth in emerging market economies (EMs).
- The magnitude and transmission channel of the impact of credit on real activity depend on the specific type of credit.
- Corporate credit shocks influence GDP growth mainly through investment.
- Consumer credit shocks are associated with private consumption.
- Results from a Brazil case study using a time series model are consistent with the cross-country panel regression findings.
Methodology
- Cross-country panel regressions were used to assess the contribution of credit growth and the composition of credit portfolio (corporate, consumer, and housing credit) to economic growth in EMs.
- A time series model was applied to Brazil as a case study to examine the role of credit expansion and composition in driving past real GDP growth.
Scope and subjects
- Subjects: Consumer credit, Consumption, Credit, Credit booms, Money, National accounts, Private consumption
- Keywords: Consumer credit, Consumption, Credit, Credit booms, credit growth, credit portfolio, credit shock, credit variable, Economic Growth, Emerging Markets, Global, growth matter, housing credit, Private consumption, time series, WP
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