Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy
IMF Working Papers, July 16, 2014
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
- Published: July 16, 2014
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498337601.001
Overview and purpose
- Author: Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
- Publication date: July 16, 2014
- Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2014/125
- Objective: Determine the effects that natural disasters have on per capita GDP and on the debt to GDP ratio in the Caribbean.
Scope and methodology
- Sample: panel of 12 Caribbean countries
- Period: 40 years
- Natural disaster types analyzed: storms and floods
- Disaster severity considered: moderate and severe disasters
- Empirical approach: vector autoregressive model with exogenous natural disasters shocks (Panel VAR with exogenous variables)
Key findings
- Both storms and floods have a negative effect on growth (per capita GDP).
- Debt increases with floods but not with storms (in the full sample).
- In a subsample, storms significantly increase debt in the short and long run.
- Weak evidence that debt relief contributes to ease the negative effects of storms on debt.
Subjects and keywords (as provided)
- Subjects: Aid flows, Asset and liability management, Debt relief, Debt restructuring, Environment, Foreign aid, Natural disasters
- Keywords: Aid flows, Caribbean, critical value, cumulative effect, debt, debt forgiveness, Debt relief, debt relief dummy, Debt restructuring, debt result, effect coefficient, effects of flood, estimation result, growth, growth rate, inflation rate, likelihood ratio test, natural disasters, opportunity cost, Panel VAR with exogenous variables, WP