Governments’ Payment Discipline : The Macroeconomic Impact of Public Payment Delays and Arrears

Author/Editor:

Cristina Checherita-Westphal ; Alexander D Klemm ; Paul Viefers

Publication Date:

January 22, 2015

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper considers the impact of changes in the payment discipline of governments on the private sector. We argue that increased delays in public payments can affect private sector liquidity and profits and hence ultimately economic growth. We test this prediction empirically for European Union countries using two complementary approaches. First, we use annual panel data, including a newly constructed proxy for government arrears. We find that payment delays and to some extent estimated arrears lead to a higher likelihood of bankruptcy, lower profits, and lower economic growth. However, while this approach allows a broad set of variables to be included, it restricts the number of time periods. We therefore complement it with a Bayesian VAR approach on quarterly data for selected countries faced with significant payment delays. We again find that the likelihood of bankruptcies rises when governments increase the average payment period.

Series:

Working Paper No. 15/13

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

January 22, 2015

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484317020/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2015013

Format:

Paper

Pages:

32

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