Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean: The Role of Climatic and External Shocks
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Summary:
This paper develops country-specific VAR models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic business cycles are especially vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions, with a natural disaster leading to an immediate and significant fall in output-but the effects do not appear to be persistent. Oil price and external demand shocks also contribute significantly to domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. An increase in oil prices (external demand) is contractionary (expansionary), and the effects dissipate up to three years after the shock.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2009/159
Subject:
Business cycles Econometric analysis Economic growth Environment Financial services Natural disasters Oil prices Prices Real interest rates Vector autoregression
English
Publication Date:
July 1, 2009
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451873061/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2009159
Pages:
27
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