Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions

Author/Editor:

Salvatore Dell'Erba ; Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro ; Ksenia Koloskova

Publication Date:

December 5, 2014

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda’s (2005) local projection methodology, we find that cumulative fiscal multipliers related to output, employment and unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to reduce public debt burdens should proceed gradually if economic activity remains below trend for a prolonged period.

Series:

Working Paper No. 14/213

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

December 5, 2014

ISBN/ISSN:

9781498336192/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2014213

Format:

Paper

Pages:

42

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org