Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries : Balancing Financial Stability and Development

Author/Editor:

Daniela Marchettini ; Rodolfo Maino

Publication Date:

August 12, 2015

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

We propose a toolkit for the assessment of systemic risk buildup in low income countries. We show that, due to non-linearity in the relationship between credit and financial stability, the assessment should be conducted with different tools at different stages of financial development. In particular, when the level of financial depth is low, traditional leading indicators of banking crises have poor predictive performance and the analysis should be based on indicators that account for financial deepening while taking into consideration countries’ structural limits. By using this framework, we provide a preliminary assessment of systemic risk buildup in individual SSA countries.

Series:

Working Paper No. 15/190

Subject:

Banking crisis Credit booms Development Financial crises Financial sector Financial stability Low income countries Sub-Saharan Africa Systemic risk Systemic risk assessment

English

Publication Date:

August 12, 2015

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513545882/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2015190

Format:

Paper

Pages:

40

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