The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities: A New Dataset
IMF Working Papers, February 8, 2016
Source details
- Canonical URL
- The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities: A New Dataset
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Elva Bova, Marta Ruiz-Arranz, Frederik G Toscani, H. Elif Ture
- Published: February 8, 2016
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498303606.001
Dataset construction
- First comprehensive dataset of contingent liability realizations in advanced and emerging markets for the period 1990–2014.
- Covers contingent liability realizations across multiple economic sectors, with emphasis on the financial sector and episodes related to the Global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
Key findings
- Contingent liability realizations are a major source of fiscal distress.
- The average fiscal cost of a contingent liability realization is 6 percent of GDP.
- Fiscal costs can be as high as 40 percent of GDP for major financial sector bailouts.
- Contingent liability realizations are correlated among each other and tend to occur during periods of growth reversals and crises, accentuating pressure on the budget during already difficult times.
- Countries with stronger institutions are able to better control and address the underlying risks and are less exposed to contingent liability realizations.
Thematic relevance and keywords
- Subject areas: Contingent liabilities, Economic sectors, Financial crises, Financial sector, Fiscal risks, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Public debt, Public financial management (PFM).
- Keywords highlighted on the source: Budget Deficits, CL, CL materialization, CL realization, CL shock, Contingent Liabilities, debt assumption, Eastern Europe, Financial sector, fiscal cost, Fiscal Crisis, Fiscal risks, Global, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Public Debt, SOE support, WP.
Publication metadata (excerpted from the source page)
- Authors: Elva Bova, Marta Ruiz-Arranz, Frederik G Toscani, H. Elif Ture
- Date: February 8, 2016
- Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2016/014
- Pages: 55
- Issue: 014
- ISBN: 9781498303606
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498303606.001
Source: IMF Working Paper "The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities: A New Dataset" by Elva Bova, Marta Ruiz-Arranz, Frederik G Toscani, and H. Elif Ture (February 8, 2016).