The Potential Macroeconomic Impact of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom in the United States

Author/Editor:

Benjamin L Hunt ; Dirk V Muir ; Martin Sommer

Publication Date:

May 1, 2015

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper uses two of the IMF's structural macroeconomic models to estimate the potential global impact of the boom in unconventional oil and natural gas in the United States. The results suggest that the impact on the level of U.S. real GDP over roughly the next decade could be significant, but modest, ranging between 1 and 1½ percent. Further, while the impact on the U.S. energy trade balance will be large, most results suggest that its impact on the overall U.S. current account will be negligible. The impact outside of the United States will be modestly positive on average, but most countries dependent on energy exports will be affected adversely.

Series:

Working Paper No. 15/92

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

May 1, 2015

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484353189/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2015092

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

25

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