Volatility and Jump Risk Premia in Emerging Market Bonds

July 1, 2007

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

John J Matovu. Volatility and Jump Risk Premia in Emerging Market Bonds, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2007) accessed November 8, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

There is strong evidence that interest rates and bond yield movements exhibit both stochastic volatility and unanticipated jumps. The presence of frequent jumps makes it natural to ask whether there is a premium for jump risk embedded in observed bond yields. This paper identifies a class of jump-diffusion models that are successful in approximating the term structure of interest rates of emerging markets. The parameters of the term structure of interest rates are reconciled with the associated bond yields by estimating the volatility and jump risk premia in highly volatile markets. Using the simulated method of moments (SMM), results suggest that all variants of models which do not take into account stochastic volatility and unanticipated jumps cannot generate the non-normalities consistent with the observed interest rates. Jumps occur (8,10) times a year in Argentina and Brazil, respectively. The size and variance of these jumps is also of statistical significance.

Subject: Asset prices, Interest rate modelling, Market interest rates, Short term interest rates, Yield curve

Keywords: Brady bond, Risk premium, Stochastic model, Time series, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

25
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2007/172
Stock No:

WPIEA2007172
ISBN:

9781451867367
ISSN:

1018-5941

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