New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics
IMF Working Papers, January 24, 2018
Source details
- Canonical URL
- New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Marco Marini, Robert Dippelsman, Michael Stanger
- Published: January 24, 2018
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484338629.001
Methodology
- The paper documents a new methodology developed to estimate missing observations of bilateral trade statistics on a monthly basis.
- The estimation procedure is founded on a benchmarking method that produces monthly estimates based on official trade statistics by partner country reported at different times and frequencies.
- The paper describes the new estimation methodology in detail.
Data sources and incorporation
- Additional data sources have been incorporated into the Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset as part of the March 2017 upgrade.
- The benchmarking method uses official trade statistics by partner country reported at different times and frequencies to produce monthly estimates.
Impact assessment
- The paper assesses the impact of the new estimates on trade measurement in DOTS at global, regional, and country-specific levels.
- Assessment covers changes to measurement of direction of trade, exports, imports, plurilateral trade, and trade balance.
Suggested developments and policy relevance
- The paper suggests developments of DOTS to strengthen its relevance for IMF bilateral and multilateral surveillance.
- Emphasis on improving partner-country detail and the statistics database to better inform IMF surveillance.
Content in this bundle
- New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics, WP/18/16, January 2018