Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs

IMF Working Papers, January 15, 2019

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Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Davide Furceri, Swarnali A Hannan, Jonathan David Ostry, Andrew K. Rose
• Published: January 15, 2019
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484390061.001

Key findings

• Tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity.
• Tariff increases result in more unemployment.
• Tariff increases lead to higher inequality.
• Tariff increases cause real exchange rate appreciation.
• Tariff increases have only small effects on the trade balance.
• The detrimental effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified:
  • when tariffs rise during expansions,
  • for advanced economies,
  • and when tariffs go up, not down.
• Results are robust to a large number of perturbations to the methodology.
• Analysis is complemented with industry-level data.

Methodology and data

• Estimation approach: impulse response functions from local projections.
• Data panel: annual data spanning 151 countries over 1963-2014.

Subject coverage and keywords

• Subjects: Foreign exchange, International trade, Production, Productivity, Protectionism, Real exchange rates, Tariffs, Taxes, Trade balance.
• Keywords: Africa, exchange rate, Global, inequality, input tariff, output, output tariff effect, productivity, protection, Protectionism, Real exchange rates, sensitivity analysis, tariff change, tariff consequence, tariff increase, tariff rate, Tariffs, Trade balance, trade balance., unemployment, WP

Publication metadata (as reported on the page)

• Publication type: IMF Working Papers
• Authors: Davide Furceri, Swarnali A Hannan, Jonathan David Ostry, Andrew K. Rose
• Date: January 15, 2019
• Pages: 57
• Volume: 2019
• Issue: 009
• Series: Working Paper No. 2019/009
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484390061.001
• ISBN: 9781484390061
• ISSN: 1018-5941

IMF Working Paper No. 2019/009 (January 15, 2019) — "Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs" by Davide Furceri, Swarnali A Hannan, Jonathan David Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose

Content in this bundle

• Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs, WP/19/9, January 2019
  • Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs, WP/19/9, January 2019 (Markdown version)
  • Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs, WP/19/9, January 2019 (PDF)