The Russian State’s Size and its Footprint: Have They Increased?
IMF Working Papers, March 8, 2019
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- The Russian State’s Size and its Footprint: Have They Increased?
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Gabriel Di Bella, Oksana Dynnikova, Slavi T Slavov
- Published: March 8, 2019
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498302791.001
Summary findings
- Short answer: The size of the Russian State has not increased much in the last few years, but its economic footprint remains significant.
- The state's size increased from about 32 percent of GDP in 2012 to 33 percent in 2016.
- The 2012–2016 series is "not far from the EBRD's estimate of 35 percent for 2005-10."
- This evidence contrasts with a mainstream narrative that contends the state's size doubled in the last decade.
State footprint in activity and employment
- State share in formal sector activity: close to 40 percent.
- State share in formal sector employment: about 50 percent.
- These measures indicate a deep state footprint despite limited change in overall state size as a share of GDP.
Market structure, competition, and efficiency
- Sectors in which the state is present are more concentrated.
- Concentration is large even in sectors where the state's share is low.
- Implication: need to protect and promote competition, with particular emphasis on state procurement.
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) performance
- SOEs' performance appears weaker than that of privately-owned firms.
- Weaker SOE performance may be subtracting from growth.
Policy recommendations and implications
- Protect and promote competition across sectors, including where state presence is limited.
- Strengthen competition safeguards in state procurement to mitigate concentration effects.
- Address weaker SOE performance to reduce its potential drag on growth.
Gabriel Di Bella, Oksana Dynnikova, and Slavi T Slavov. March 8, 2019. IMF Working Papers 2019, 053 (2019).
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