IMF Working Papers

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey

Author/Editor:

Plamen K Iossifov ; Xuan Fei

Publication Date:

June 28, 2019

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

There is an ongoing debate in the literature on whether global trade flows have become disconnected from the large real effective exchange rate movements in the wake of the global financial crisis. The question has important policy implications for the role of exchange rates in supporting growth and restoring external balance. In this paper, we use Turkey---a large and open emerging market economy that has experienced sizable swings of the real effective exchange rate---as a case study to test competing hypotheses. Our results lend support to the finding in existing cross-country studies that the real effective exchange rate remains an important determinant of trade flows. But, its effect is not symmetric in secular periods of appreciation and depreciation and is, oftentimes, dwarfed by the impact on trade flows of the income growth differential between trade partners.

Series:

Working Paper No. 19/131

Subject:

Accounting Balance of trade Central banking Central Banks Consumer goods Consumer price indexes Corporate debt Credit Currencies Currency units Current account Current account deficits Data processing Demand Demand elasticity Depreciation Devaluation Development Emerging markets Energy Equilibrium (Economics) Exchange rate appreciation Exchange rate depreciation Exchange rate pass-through Exchange rates Export prices Export promotion Exports External debt Financial crises General equilibrium models Global imbalances Gold Goods Gross domestic product Import prices Imports International trade Market economies National accounts Nonlinear theories Patterns of trade Price elasticity Price indexes Prices Private sector Production Public-private partnership Purchasing power Purchasing power parity Real effective exchange rates Real exchange rates Risk premium Services Statistics Stocks Supply Time series Total factor productivity Trade deficits Trade models Trade partners Vector autoregression