Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru

By Christoph Freudenberg, Frederik G Toscani

July 11, 2019

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Christoph Freudenberg, and Frederik G Toscani. Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2019) accessed September 19, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Past reforms have put the Peruvian pension system on a largely fiscally sustainable path, but the system faces important challenges in providing adequate pension levels for a large share of the population. Using administrative microdata at the affiliate level, we project replacement rates in the defined benefit (DB) and defined contribution (DC) pillars over the next 30 years and simulate the impact of various reform scenarios on the average level and distribution of pensions. In the DB pillar, the regressive minimum contribution period should be re-thought, while in the DC pillar a broadening of the contribution base and/or an increase in contribution rates would help increase replacement rates relative to the baseline forecast of 25-33 percent. A higher net real rate of return than assumed in the baseline would also have a significant positive impact. In the medium-term, labor market reform to tackle informality, and a broad pension reform to restructure the system and avoid competition between the DB and DC pillars should be a priority. Given low pension coverage, having a strong non-contributory pillar will remain important for the foreseeable future.

Subject: Aging, Expenditure, Labor, Pension spending, Pensions, Population and demographics, Retirement, Wages

Keywords: Aging, Asociación International, Central and Eastern Europe, Contribution Density, Fondos de Pensiones, Global, Pension spending, Pension System, Pensions, Peru, Replacement rate, Replacement Rates, Retirement, Retirement age, SNP affiliate, SNP calculation, SNP State budget, SPP affiliate, SPP assets, SPP data, SPP mortality tables, SPP pension, SPP simulation, Wages, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

47
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2019/149
Stock No:

WPIEA2019149
ISBN:

9781498318525
ISSN:

1018-5941

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