COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks and Capital Flows

Author/Editor:

Cem Cakmakli ; Selva Demiralp ; Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan ; Sevcan Yesiltas ; Muhammed A. Yildirim

Publication Date:

July 17, 2020

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model. We measure sectoral supply shocks utilizing teleworking and physical job proximity, and demand shocks with credit card purchases. Both shocks are also affected from changing infection rates under different lockdown scenarios. Being an open economy amplifies the economic costs through two main channels. First, the demand shock has domestic and external components. Second, the initial shock is magnified due to domestic and international input-output linkages.

Series:

Working Paper No. 20/133

Subject:

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

July 17, 2020

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513550183/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2020133

Format:

Paper

Pages:

74

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org