Determinants of Pre-Pandemic Demand for the IMF’s Concessional Financing
IMF Working Papers, January 29, 2021
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- Determinants of Pre-Pandemic Demand for the IMF’s Concessional Financing
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Huy Nguyen, Randa Sab
- Published: January 29, 2021
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513567778.001
Study scope and objective
- Focus: identifying the main factors that influenced country-specific and aggregate demand for IMF concessional financing between 1986 and 2018.
- Methodological aim: make within-period and out-of-period forecasts and assess forecast accuracy for historical financing events prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Key empirical findings
- Main economic variables influencing concessional borrowing for most eligible countries:
- External debt level
- Inflation
- Real effective exchange rate
- Forecasting performance:
- The study's approach is able to provide quite accurate country-level and aggregate forecasts for historical financing events prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Subjects and keywords
- Subject: Concessional external borrowing, Current account balance, External debt, Factor models, Real effective exchange rates
- Keywords: Concessional financing, dynamic factor model, factor estimation step, financing arrangement, IMF financing event, IMF staff calculation, probit regression., WP
Content in this bundle
- Working Paper