Determinants of Pre-Pandemic Demand for the IMF’s Concessional Financing

Author/Editor:

Timothy Hills ; Huy Nguyen ; Randa Sab

Publication Date:

January 29, 2021

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

This study focuses on identifying the main factors that influenced country-specific and aggregate demand for IMF concessional financing between 1986 and 2018 and makes within-period and out-of-period forecasts. We find that the external debt level, inflation, and real effective exchange rate are the main economic variables influencing concessional borrowing for most eligible countries. Finally, our approach is able to provide quite accurate country-level and aggregate forecasts for historical financing events prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/015

Subject:

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

January 29, 2021

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513567778/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2021015

Format:

Paper

Pages:

29

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