Recoveries After Pandemics: The Role of Policies and Structural Features

Author/Editor:

Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre ; . Swarnali A Hannan

Publication Date:

July 9, 2021

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

To shed light on the possible scarring effects from Covid-19, this paper studies the economic effects of five past pandemics using local projections on a sample of fifty-five countries over 1990-2019. The findings reveal that pandemics have detrimental medium-term effects on output, unemployment, poverty, and inequality. However, policies can go a long way toward alleviating suffering and fostering an inclusive recovery. The adverse output effects are limited for countries that provided relatively greater fiscal support. The increases in unemployment, poverty, and inequality are likewise lower for countries with relatively greater fiscal support and relatively stronger initial conditions (as defined by higher formality, family benefits, and health spending per capita).

Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/181

Frequency:

regular

English

Publication Date:

July 9, 2021

ISBN/ISSN:

9781513583792/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2021181

Pages:

40

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