IMF Working Papers

Nowcasting Global Trade from Space

By Serkan Arslanalp, Seung Mo Choi, Parisa Kamali, Robin Koepke, Matthew McKetty, Michele Ruta, Mario Saraiva, Alessandra Sozzi, Jasper Verschuur

May 16, 2025

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Format: Chicago

Serkan Arslanalp, Seung Mo Choi, Parisa Kamali, Robin Koepke, Matthew McKetty, Michele Ruta, Mario Saraiva, Alessandra Sozzi, and Jasper Verschuur. "Nowcasting Global Trade from Space", IMF Working Papers 2025, 093 (2025), accessed June 19, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229009294.001

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

We introduce a nowcasting model of global maritime trade, leveraging satellite-based big data on vessel movements. This provides a timely indicator of global trade as shipping accounts for about 80 percent of worldwide merchandise trade by volume. Our approach mimics key features of the way statisticians compile trade data—measuring the customs value of imported and exported goods first, forming import and export price deflators, and then estimating import and export volumes. We show how global and regional nowcasts can be obtained using port-level data from IMF PortWatch and highlight important enhancements to the platform since its beta launch in November 2023. Finally, we demonstrate how the monthly nowcasts can be used to monitor fragmentation and regionalization in global maritime trade.

Subject: Commodities, Economic forecasting, Exports, Imports, International trade, Oil, Trade balance

Keywords: Big data, Containerized trade, Europe, Export price deflator, Exports, Global, IMF PortWatch, Imports, Maritime trade, Middle East and Central Asia, Nowcasting, Oil, Trade balance, Trade data, Trade estimate, Trade value

Publication Details

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