Labor Markets, Migration, and EU Integration in the Western Balkans
IMF Working Papers, October 31, 2025
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- Labor Markets, Migration, and EU Integration in the Western Balkans
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Stephen Ayerst, Nina Chebotareva, Oksana Dynnikova, Amanda Edwards, Charles Zhang
- Published: October 31, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229029056.001
Study objective and framework
- Develops a structural model of interconnected European labor markets to examine how further EU integration would impact the Western Balkan economies and how policy can improve output and employment in these countries.
- Model explicitly links migration responses to labor market outcomes across interconnected European economies.
Key findings from model simulations
- Productivity increases of 30 percent, similar to previous EU accession cases, would:
- result in wage growth;
- help close the unemployment gap;
- offset increased emigration through higher immigration and labor participation.
- Risks of increased emigration from further integration can be managed through promoting faster productivity growth, including through structural reforms.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Promote faster productivity growth (including through structural reforms) to manage emigration risks and to support wages and employment.
- Improve the efficiency of the labor market across three dimensions to boost employment and support output:
- participation;
- job search;
- production.
Content in this bundle
- Working Paper