RIP office?
As long as COVID-19 remains a threat, it will be impossible to tell whether
the world is seeing real cultural change or just successful contingency
adaptation. The global teleworking experiment has led many to herald the
end of the office as we know it. But reports of its demise may be
exaggerated. What is now considered lifesaving technology has been around
for years without triggering a mass exodus. While there are many potential
benefits—flexible working hours, less commuting, people able to work and
companies able to hire anywhere—the long-term consequences of home working
are yet to be fully assessed. One obvious danger is cybersecurity: more
people connected to unprotected domestic networks increase the so-called
attack surface available for hackers. The impact on cities and office
areas, as well as on hotels, restaurants, shops, and other services, is
hard to estimate, but it could be meaningful.
Brynjolfsson, recently named director of Stanford University’s Digital
Economy Lab, believes the change is more permanent and predicts expanded
use of machine learning. “The question is, What parts of the economy are
going to be most [or] less affected?” he said in a recent seminar. Without
an effective treatment or a vaccine, the pandemic can lead to more
automation because of social distancing and businesses seeking resilience.
A more automated assembly line is less susceptible to outbreaks.
“In the UK, the incentive for automation has been suppressed by government
interventions to protect workers,” Susskind told F&D. “Once these
protections expire, this incentive might be unleashed again.”
Technology has kept the world humming but has also accentuated many fault
lines: education, income, types of jobs. The solution to this dilemma is
complex. Governments will be called on to spend more in the short
term—helping companies keep current employees, expanding training, and
facilitating rehiring—and over the long run, in particular, investing in
education and broader internet access. It’s a tall order even for advanced
economies, but especially for emerging economies still struggling with
basic needs.
Maybe the solution is inside the problem. Economies—advanced or
developing—must make technology work in their favor, and governments must
make inclusiveness a priority. “Innovation can create new growth and boost
productivity,” Era Dabla-Norris, lead author of the teleworkability study,
told F&D. “Digitalization is reshaping many activities and can help
workers and business adjust to this new world. The key is to create digital
inclusion and then translate it into economic inclusion.”
