New Model Army by Jeremy Wagstaff

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AI has accelerated shifts in battlefield dynamics, and policymakers are playing catch-up.
The war in Ukraine has become a testing ground for new technology, demonstrating how artificial intelligence (AI) can be used across strategic decision-making, tactical operations, logistical prediction, and information warfare.
The piece frames AI uses including: acting on real-time or recent intelligence at the local level; predicting logistical challenges; and leveraging information warfare to “shape how narrative construction works.”

AI helps armies monitor enemy movements and deliver payloads remotely and autonomously.
Battlefield dynamics accelerate as forces alter tactics, techniques, and procedures to leverage or mitigate AI’s impact.
Failure to adapt quickly can be seized on by an agile foe.
Examples:
- When Russian soldiers and pilots communicated without encrypting their conversations, Ukraine developed AI-based voice recognition and translation software to monitor these communications and extract actionable intelligence.
- When Russia introduced electronic jamming to thwart Ukraine’s combat drones, Kyiv’s programmers developed an AI tool to help its drones evade Russian jamming and stay locked on target.

The principles behind UAVs have not changed significantly since the 1990s, but in Ukraine the range and capabilities of drones evolved rapidly by coupling them with continuous advances in AI.
Early role: the military-grade Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone played a key role in Ukraine’s defense in the early months of the 2022 invasion, but became less useful as Russia upgraded its air defense and electronic warfare capabilities.
With more permanent battle lines later in the year, Ukraine pushed domestic drone development, yielding improved and diverse devices.
Example: In September, Kyiv approved deployment of homegrown Saker Scout drones that can detect enemy targets often missed by the human eye, even when hidden under camouflage.
The pace of drone innovation changed military thinking: planners began treating AI not as a checkbox but as requiring data, knowledge of both sides, and robust testing and evaluation procedures.
Quote: Ukraine’s creative drone development is something “no one could have imagined,” per Lauren Kahn, senior research analyst at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET).

Data is characterized as the fuel that powers AI; the war highlighted both data importance and policy questions.
Ukraine repurposed a government tax app to allow citizens to upload photos, videos, and other details about Russian troops and positions to a military-run database.
Kyiv combined commercially available satellite images with classified ally data, hacked Russian surveillance cameras, and its own drone footage.
Private tech companies played central roles in processing sensitive data; Palantir is the most visible example.
- Palantir’s involvement extended the private sector role in processing wartime data; its chief executive, Alex Karp, is on record as saying the company is responsible for most of the targeting in Ukraine.
- Quote: “It’s almost like a full service they provide, which I think has proved invaluable,” — CSET’s Lauren Kahn.
Policy questions flagged:
- Private companies can develop the kinds of AI armed forces need, but “Once it’s out there, where does it go next? How’s it going to be controlled, shaped, or directed?” — Matthew Ford, Swedish Defence University.

The war is described as “the most documented war in history.”
Telegram, used by three-quarters of Ukrainians and well over a third of Russians to share videos and photos, functions as the digital battleground.
Uploaded content goes beyond military and intelligence servers to NGOs and investigators cataloging human rights abuses for future war crimes trials.
AI applied to these archives enables discovery of unexpected findings: “When you apply AI to these archives, ‘you start to find things you never anticipated.’” — Andrew Hoskins, University of Glasgow.

Jeremy Wagstaff — New Model Army, F&D Magazine, December 2023