Selected Issues Papers

The population of North Macedonia has been steadily declining over the past two decades and is projected to continue to decline into the foreseeable future due to emigration. This paper estimates an expected cost of the population decline on potential output growth of around 0.5 percentage points. The paper employs a structural model of the European labor market with migration. Increasing productivity benefits potential output and helps protect the labor force from emigration. Productivity-increasing structural reforms, active labor market policies, new business support, and labor participation support can boost output, helping to offset some of the negative impact of migration.