Population Dynamics, Labor Market Integration, and Migration: Republic of North Macedonia
Selected Issues Papers, May 21, 2025
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Population Dynamics, Labor Market Integration, and Migration: Republic of North Macedonia
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Stephen Ayerst, Simona Kovachevska Stefanova
- Published: May 21, 2025
- Series: Selected Issues Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229011389.018
Overview
- The population of North Macedonia has been steadily declining over the past two decades and is projected to continue to decline into the foreseeable future due to emigration.
- The paper estimates an expected cost of the population decline on potential output growth of around 0.5 percentage points.
- The analysis employs a structural model of the European labor market with migration.
Main findings
- Demographic trend: steady population decline over the past two decades driven primarily by emigration.
- Macroeconomic impact: expected cost on potential output growth of around 0.5 percentage points.
- Model insight: increasing productivity benefits potential output and helps protect the labor force from emigration.
Model and scenarios
- Structural framework: a structural model of the European labor market with migration is used to assess interactions between productivity, labor supply, and migration.
- Scenario implications:
- Productivity improvements raise potential output and reduce emigration pressure on the labor force.
- Without offsetting measures, ongoing emigration continues to exert downward pressure on potential output consistent with the estimated cost.
Policy recommendations
- Productivity-increasing structural reforms.
- Active labor market policies.
- New business support.
- Labor participation support.
- Combined implementation of these measures can boost output and help offset some of the negative impact of migration.
Subject tags and keywords (as provided)
- Subject: Gender, Gender inequality, Labor, Labor markets, Population and demographics, Potential output, Production, Unemployment
- Keywords: D. modeling labor markets, EU integration, Gender inequality, labor market integration, Labor Markets, Migration, North Macedonia, Northern Europe, policy scenario, Population, population dynamics, Potential output, Unemployment
Source: Stephen Ayerst, Simona Kovachevska Stefanova, "Population Dynamics, Labor Market Integration, and Migration: Republic of North Macedonia", May 21, 2025.
Content in this bundle
- Change in Population in North Macedonia and the Western Balkan Countries