Carlos Mulas Granados

Last Updated: October 15, 2020

Carlos Mulas Granados

Carlos Mulas-Granados is a Senior Economist at the European Department of the International Monetary Fund, where he coordinates research work the conjunctural and analytical chapters of EUR's Regional Economic Outlook. Before that, he was a senior economist in the Fiscal Affairs Department, where he led research for flagship publications such as the Fiscal Monitor and contributed to the World Economic Outlook. While at the Fund, he has also worked on country-specific economic or fiscal issues in Senegal, Portugal, Costa Rica, Brazil, Croatia. the UK and the Euro area. He is the author/editor of 4 books and has published dozens of articles in different areas, including political economy, fiscal adjustments, debt reduction, public investment, R&D and inequality. His articles have appeared in renowned journals such as Economic Policy, Public Choice, European Journal of Political Economy, Journal of International Money and Finance, Research Policy, etc. Since joining the Fund in 2012, he is on special leave from his position as Tenured-Professor in the Department of Applied Economics at Complutense University, Spain. In 2009, the Ideas Foundation appointed him as the Executive Director of its think-tank for a 3-year period. Before gaining his tenure at Complutense University in 2007, he had been an assistant professor at George Washington University and the European University of Madrid. He had also been a visiting professor in different graduate programs at the School of Industrial Organization, the Iberoamerican Foundation of Public Policies, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Ortega y Gasset Foundation. During that academic period he was several times a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission. Between 2004 and 2006, he served as the Deputy Director of the Spanish Prime Minister's Economic Office. He holds a PhD in Economics from Cambridge University (UK) and a European Doctor degree in Economics from Complutense University (Spain). He also has a Masters degree in International Political Economy from Columbia University (USA) and is Doctor Member of the Center for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences at the Juan March Institute (Spain). Before that, he gained BA degrees in Economics and Business Administration from Carlos III University in Madrid.

Email: CMULASGRANADOS@imf.org

Personal WebPage: http://www.carlosmulasgranados.com

Fluent In: French, Portuguese, Spanish.

Education:

PhD in Economics, University of Cambridge, UK

European Doctorate in Applied Economics, Complutense University, Spain

Master in International Affairs (Int. Econ. Policy), Columbia University, US

Master in Social Sciences, Center for Advanced Studies in Social Sciences, Institute Juan March, Spain

Diploma of Advanced Studies in Political Science, Autonomous University, Spain

B.A. in Economics, Carlos III University, Spain

B.A. in Business Adminsitration, Carlos III University, Spain


Previous Experience:

Assistant Professor, Department of Applied Economics, Complutense University (2003-currently on leave)

Executive Director, IDEAS Foundation, 2009-2012

Deputy Director, Spain's Prime Minister's Economic Office, 2004-2006

Director of International Economics, Institute Complutense of International Studies (ICEI), 2007-2008

Member of the Cabinet of the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, 2000


Awards and Honors:

IMF / FAD Departmental Award for the Book on Political Economy, 2017

IMF Global Fund Award for Work on Inequality Issues, 2015

Gran Cruz de Isabel la Católica al Mérito Civil (Medal in recognition of civil merits conceded by the Ministry of Presidency), 2006

Jean Monnet-Uni2 Research Award for the best article in European Economy, 2002

Fellow of the Cambridge European Trust

Cajamadrid Fellowship for Postgraduate Studies in Europe

Social Science Research Council (SSRC) Fellowship in Applied Economics

La Caixa Foundation Fellowship for Graduate Studies in the United States

Institute Juan March Doctoral Fellowship (Center Advanced Studies Social Sciences)

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe , Working Paper No. 20/218 , October 21, 2020

Automation, Skills and the Future of Work: What do Workers Think? , Working Paper No. 19/288 , December 20, 2019

Trade Tensions, Global Value Chains, and Spillovers : Insights for Europe , Departmental Paper No. 19/10 , June 12, 2019

Fiscal Politics , April 07, 2017

Non-Performing Loans in the ECCU : Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact , Working Paper No. 16/229 , November 17, 2016

The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes , Working Paper No. 16/202 , October 14, 2016

Fragmented Politics and Public Debt , Working Paper No. 16/190 , September 19, 2016

Functional Income Distribution and Its Role in Explaining Inequality , Working Paper No. 15/244 , November 24, 2015

Now or Later? The Political Economy of Public Investment in Democracies , Working Paper No. 15/175 , July 27, 2015

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments , Working Paper No. 14/179 , September 25, 2014

Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies , Working Paper No. 13/238 , November 22, 2013

Restoring Debt Sustainability After Crises: Implications for the Fiscal Mix , Working Paper No. 10/232 , October 01, 2010

How Effective is Fiscal Policy Response in Systemic Banking Crises? , Working Paper No. 09/160 , July 01, 2009

Reforming Government Subsidies in the New Member States of the European Union , Working Paper No. 08/165 , July 01, 2008

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies? , Working Paper No. 04/157 , August 01, 2004

Expenditure Composition, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries , Working Paper No. 02/77 , April 01, 2002

iMFdirect Blog Posts

Public Opinion on Automation, IMFBlog, February 10, 2020

Tariff Shocks: The Role of Value Chains in Europe, IMF Blog, July 3, 2019

F&D articles

Politics and Public Investment, Finance & Development, Vol. 52, No. 4 (December 2015)

Getting Debt under Control, Finance & Development, Vol. 47, No. 4 (December 2010)

Selected Issue

"Stretching the Limits: The Evolution of Subnational Public Finances in Brazil", Selected Issues Paper (November, 2016)

"Fiscal Challenges of an Aging Population in Brazil", Selected Issues Paper (November, 2016)

"Strengthening Senegal's Fiscal Framework", Selected Issues Paper (January, 2015)

Other Published Materials

Carlos Mulas-Granados, Richard Varghese, Alice de Chandelar, and Vizhdan Boranova (2019) “Automation, Skills and the Future of Work: What Do Workers Think?”, IMF Working Paper No. 19/228.

Alfredo Cuevas, Izabela Karpowitz, Carlos Mulas-Granados, and Mauricio Soto (2017), “The Fiscal Challenges of Population Aging in Brazil”, IMF Working Paper No. 17/99.

Sanjeev Gupta, Joao Jalles, Carlos Mulas-Granados and Michela Schena (2017), "Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations : Do They Mean What They Say?" IMF Working Paper No. 17/39.

Joao Jalles, Carlos Mulas-Granados and Jose Tavares (2016), "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates: Does Politics Matter? IMF Working Paper No. 16/230.

Laura Jaramillo, Carlos Mulas-Granados and Elijah Kimani (2016) “The Blind Side of Debt Spikes”, IMF Working Paper 16/202.

Ernesto Crivelli, Sanjeev Gupta and Carlos Mulas-Granados (2016) “Fragmented Politics and Public Debt”, IMF Working Paper 16/190.

Books

Vitor Gaspar, Sanjeev Gupta and Carlos Mulas-Granados (Eds.) (2017), FISCAL POLITICS. Washington: International Monetary Fund.

Carlos Mulas-Granados (2006) ECONOMICS, POLITICS AND BUDGETS: The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments in Europe, Palgrave-MacMillan

Carlos Mulas-Granados (Coord.) (2010) EL ESTADO DINAMIZADOR: Nuevos Riesgos y Nuevas Politicas en Europa (Coord.), Editorial Complutense.

J.A. Alonso and Carlos Mulas-Granados (Eds.) (2011) CORRUPCION, COHESION SOCIAL Y DESARROLLO EN AMERICA LATINA, Fondo de Cultura Económica.

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

“Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates: Does Politics Matter?” (with Joao T. Jalles and José Tavares) Scottish Journal of Political Economy: 1-24.

“How Much is a Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments" (with Laura Jaramillo and Julio Escolano), Journal of Applied Economics, Vol 21(1): 137-159.

“Planned Fiscal Adjustments: Do Governments Fulfil their Commitments?” (with Sanjeev Gupta and Joao T. Jalles), European Union Politics, online first, 2018

“Single currency and fiscal performance: the early Euro Area in perspective” (with Joao T. Jalles, J.Tavares and C.Correa-Caro, Applied Economics Letters, 25(6): 415-419, 2017.

“Debt Spikes, Blind Spots and Financial Stress” (with J.T. Jalles and L. Jaramillo), International Journal of Finance and Economics, 22(4): 421-437, 2017.

“Debt Spikes and Stock-Flow Adjustments: Emerging Economies Perspectives” (with L. Jaramillo and E. Kimani), Journal of Economics and Business, 94: 1-14, 2017

"Now or Later? The Political Economy of Public Investment in Democracies" (with Estelle X. Liu and Sanjeev Gupta), European Journal of Political Economy, 45 (1): 101-114, 2016

"Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies" (with Emanuele Baldacci and Sanjeev Gupta), Journal of Applied Economics, 18 (1): 71–97, 2015

"How to Cut Debt? Reassessing the Fiscal Mix for Successful Debt Reduction” (with E. Baldacci and S. Gupta), Economic Policy, Vol. 27 (71), pp: 365-406, 2012.

“Do budget institutions matter? Fiscal consolidation in the new EU member states” (with J. Onrubia and J. Salinas), Eastern European Economics, Vol 47 (1), pp: 61-95, 2008.

“The Dispersion of Technology and Income in Europe: Evaluation and Mutual Relationship Across Regions” (with I. Sanz), Research Policy, Vol 37 (5). pp: 836-848, 2007.

“What Makes Fiscal fiscal policy sustainable? a survival analysis of fiscal consolidations in Europe” (with R. Maroto), Public Choice, Vol 134 (3-4). pp: 147-161, 2007.

“An Enlarged Monetary Union? The Procedural Sources of Fiscal Policy in the New Member States” (with J.Onrubia and J.Salinas), International Journal of Public Policy, Vol. 1, No. 3. pp: 34-61, 2006.

“The Phasing of Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?” (with E. Baldacci and S.Gupta), Review of Development Economics, Vol. 10. N. 4. pp: 612-631, 2006.

“Fiscal Policy, Expenditure Composition and Growth in Low-Income Countries” (with S.Gupta, B.Clements and E.Baldacci), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 24. pp: 441-463, 2005.

“The Persistence of Fiscal Adjustments in Developing Countries” (with S.Gupta, B.Clements and E.Baldacci), Applied Economic Letters, Vol. 11. pp: 209-212, 2004.

“Voting Against Spending Cuts: The Electoral Costs of Fiscal Adjustments in Europe”, European Union Politics, Vol. 5, No. 4. pp: 467-493, 2004

“The Political and Economic Determinants of Budgetary Consolidation in the EU”, European Political Economy Review, Vol.1, No.1. pp: 25-49, 2003.

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

"The Fourth Dimension: Financial Supervision and Economic Governance". In After the crisis: A new socio-economic settlement for the EU, London: Policy Network, 2009

Carlos Mulas Granados

Carlos Mulas-Granados is a Senior Economist at the European Department of the International Monetary Fund, where he coordinates research work the conjunctural and analytical chapters of EUR's Regional Economic Outlook. Before that, he was a senior economist in the Fiscal Affairs Department, where he led research for flagship publications such as the Fiscal Monitor and contributed to the World Economic Outlook. While at the Fund, he has also worked on country-specific economic or fiscal issues in Senegal, Portugal, Costa Rica, Brazil, Croatia. the UK and the Euro area. He is the author/editor of 4 books and has published dozens of articles in different areas, including political economy, fiscal adjustments, debt reduction, public investment, R&D and inequality. His articles have appeared in renowned journals such as Economic Policy, Public Choice, European Journal of Political Economy, Journal of International Money and Finance, Research Policy, etc. Since joining the Fund in 2012, he is on special leave from his position as Tenured-Professor in the Department of Applied Economics at Complutense University, Spain. In 2009, the Ideas Foundation appointed him as the Executive Director of its think-tank for a 3-year period. Before gaining his tenure at Complutense University in 2007, he had been an assistant professor at George Washington University and the European University of Madrid. He had also been a visiting professor in different graduate programs at the School of Industrial Organization, the Iberoamerican Foundation of Public Policies, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Ortega y Gasset Foundation. During that academic period he was several times a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission. Between 2004 and 2006, he served as the Deputy Director of the Spanish Prime Minister's Economic Office. He holds a PhD in Economics from Cambridge University (UK) and a European Doctor degree in Economics from Complutense University (Spain). He also has a Masters degree in International Political Economy from Columbia University (USA) and is Doctor Member of the Center for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences at the Juan March Institute (Spain). Before that, he gained BA degrees in Economics and Business Administration from Carlos III University in Madrid.

Email: CMULASGRANADOS@imf.org

Personal WebPage: http://www.carlosmulasgranados.com

Fluent In: French, Portuguese, Spanish.

Education:

PhD in Economics, University of Cambridge, UK

European Doctorate in Applied Economics, Complutense University, Spain

Master in International Affairs (Int. Econ. Policy), Columbia University, US

Master in Social Sciences, Center for Advanced Studies in Social Sciences, Institute Juan March, Spain

Diploma of Advanced Studies in Political Science, Autonomous University, Spain

B.A. in Economics, Carlos III University, Spain

B.A. in Business Adminsitration, Carlos III University, Spain


Previous Experience:

Assistant Professor, Department of Applied Economics, Complutense University (2003-currently on leave)

Executive Director, IDEAS Foundation, 2009-2012

Deputy Director, Spain's Prime Minister's Economic Office, 2004-2006

Director of International Economics, Institute Complutense of International Studies (ICEI), 2007-2008

Member of the Cabinet of the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, 2000


Awards and Honors:

IMF / FAD Departmental Award for the Book on Political Economy, 2017

IMF Global Fund Award for Work on Inequality Issues, 2015

Gran Cruz de Isabel la Católica al Mérito Civil (Medal in recognition of civil merits conceded by the Ministry of Presidency), 2006

Jean Monnet-Uni2 Research Award for the best article in European Economy, 2002

Fellow of the Cambridge European Trust

Cajamadrid Fellowship for Postgraduate Studies in Europe

Social Science Research Council (SSRC) Fellowship in Applied Economics

La Caixa Foundation Fellowship for Graduate Studies in the United States

Institute Juan March Doctoral Fellowship (Center Advanced Studies Social Sciences)

IMF Books and Working Papers:

Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe , Working Paper No. 20/218 , October 21, 2020

Automation, Skills and the Future of Work: What do Workers Think? , Working Paper No. 19/288 , December 20, 2019

Trade Tensions, Global Value Chains, and Spillovers : Insights for Europe , Departmental Paper No. 19/10 , June 12, 2019

Fiscal Politics , April 07, 2017

Non-Performing Loans in the ECCU : Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact , Working Paper No. 16/229 , November 17, 2016

The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes , Working Paper No. 16/202 , October 14, 2016

Fragmented Politics and Public Debt , Working Paper No. 16/190 , September 19, 2016

Functional Income Distribution and Its Role in Explaining Inequality , Working Paper No. 15/244 , November 24, 2015

Now or Later? The Political Economy of Public Investment in Democracies , Working Paper No. 15/175 , July 27, 2015

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments , Working Paper No. 14/179 , September 25, 2014

Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies , Working Paper No. 13/238 , November 22, 2013

Restoring Debt Sustainability After Crises: Implications for the Fiscal Mix , Working Paper No. 10/232 , October 01, 2010

How Effective is Fiscal Policy Response in Systemic Banking Crises? , Working Paper No. 09/160 , July 01, 2009

Reforming Government Subsidies in the New Member States of the European Union , Working Paper No. 08/165 , July 01, 2008

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies? , Working Paper No. 04/157 , August 01, 2004

Expenditure Composition, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries , Working Paper No. 02/77 , April 01, 2002

iMFdirect Blog Posts

Public Opinion on Automation, IMFBlog, February 10, 2020

Tariff Shocks: The Role of Value Chains in Europe, IMF Blog, July 3, 2019

F&D articles

Politics and Public Investment, Finance & Development, Vol. 52, No. 4 (December 2015)

Getting Debt under Control, Finance & Development, Vol. 47, No. 4 (December 2010)

Selected Issue

"Stretching the Limits: The Evolution of Subnational Public Finances in Brazil", Selected Issues Paper (November, 2016)

"Fiscal Challenges of an Aging Population in Brazil", Selected Issues Paper (November, 2016)

"Strengthening Senegal's Fiscal Framework", Selected Issues Paper (January, 2015)

Other Published Materials

Carlos Mulas-Granados, Richard Varghese, Alice de Chandelar, and Vizhdan Boranova (2019) “Automation, Skills and the Future of Work: What Do Workers Think?”, IMF Working Paper No. 19/228.

Alfredo Cuevas, Izabela Karpowitz, Carlos Mulas-Granados, and Mauricio Soto (2017), “The Fiscal Challenges of Population Aging in Brazil”, IMF Working Paper No. 17/99.

Sanjeev Gupta, Joao Jalles, Carlos Mulas-Granados and Michela Schena (2017), "Governments and Promised Fiscal Consolidations : Do They Mean What They Say?" IMF Working Paper No. 17/39.

Joao Jalles, Carlos Mulas-Granados and Jose Tavares (2016), "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates: Does Politics Matter? IMF Working Paper No. 16/230.

Laura Jaramillo, Carlos Mulas-Granados and Elijah Kimani (2016) “The Blind Side of Debt Spikes”, IMF Working Paper 16/202.

Ernesto Crivelli, Sanjeev Gupta and Carlos Mulas-Granados (2016) “Fragmented Politics and Public Debt”, IMF Working Paper 16/190.

Books

Vitor Gaspar, Sanjeev Gupta and Carlos Mulas-Granados (Eds.) (2017), FISCAL POLITICS. Washington: International Monetary Fund.

Carlos Mulas-Granados (2006) ECONOMICS, POLITICS AND BUDGETS: The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments in Europe, Palgrave-MacMillan

Carlos Mulas-Granados (Coord.) (2010) EL ESTADO DINAMIZADOR: Nuevos Riesgos y Nuevas Politicas en Europa (Coord.), Editorial Complutense.

J.A. Alonso and Carlos Mulas-Granados (Eds.) (2011) CORRUPCION, COHESION SOCIAL Y DESARROLLO EN AMERICA LATINA, Fondo de Cultura Económica.

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

“Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates: Does Politics Matter?” (with Joao T. Jalles and José Tavares) Scottish Journal of Political Economy: 1-24.

“How Much is a Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments" (with Laura Jaramillo and Julio Escolano), Journal of Applied Economics, Vol 21(1): 137-159.

“Planned Fiscal Adjustments: Do Governments Fulfil their Commitments?” (with Sanjeev Gupta and Joao T. Jalles), European Union Politics, online first, 2018

“Single currency and fiscal performance: the early Euro Area in perspective” (with Joao T. Jalles, J.Tavares and C.Correa-Caro, Applied Economics Letters, 25(6): 415-419, 2017.

“Debt Spikes, Blind Spots and Financial Stress” (with J.T. Jalles and L. Jaramillo), International Journal of Finance and Economics, 22(4): 421-437, 2017.

“Debt Spikes and Stock-Flow Adjustments: Emerging Economies Perspectives” (with L. Jaramillo and E. Kimani), Journal of Economics and Business, 94: 1-14, 2017

"Now or Later? The Political Economy of Public Investment in Democracies" (with Estelle X. Liu and Sanjeev Gupta), European Journal of Political Economy, 45 (1): 101-114, 2016

"Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies" (with Emanuele Baldacci and Sanjeev Gupta), Journal of Applied Economics, 18 (1): 71–97, 2015

"How to Cut Debt? Reassessing the Fiscal Mix for Successful Debt Reduction” (with E. Baldacci and S. Gupta), Economic Policy, Vol. 27 (71), pp: 365-406, 2012.

“Do budget institutions matter? Fiscal consolidation in the new EU member states” (with J. Onrubia and J. Salinas), Eastern European Economics, Vol 47 (1), pp: 61-95, 2008.

“The Dispersion of Technology and Income in Europe: Evaluation and Mutual Relationship Across Regions” (with I. Sanz), Research Policy, Vol 37 (5). pp: 836-848, 2007.

“What Makes Fiscal fiscal policy sustainable? a survival analysis of fiscal consolidations in Europe” (with R. Maroto), Public Choice, Vol 134 (3-4). pp: 147-161, 2007.

“An Enlarged Monetary Union? The Procedural Sources of Fiscal Policy in the New Member States” (with J.Onrubia and J.Salinas), International Journal of Public Policy, Vol. 1, No. 3. pp: 34-61, 2006.

“The Phasing of Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?” (with E. Baldacci and S.Gupta), Review of Development Economics, Vol. 10. N. 4. pp: 612-631, 2006.

“Fiscal Policy, Expenditure Composition and Growth in Low-Income Countries” (with S.Gupta, B.Clements and E.Baldacci), Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 24. pp: 441-463, 2005.

“The Persistence of Fiscal Adjustments in Developing Countries” (with S.Gupta, B.Clements and E.Baldacci), Applied Economic Letters, Vol. 11. pp: 209-212, 2004.

“Voting Against Spending Cuts: The Electoral Costs of Fiscal Adjustments in Europe”, European Union Politics, Vol. 5, No. 4. pp: 467-493, 2004

“The Political and Economic Determinants of Budgetary Consolidation in the EU”, European Political Economy Review, Vol.1, No.1. pp: 25-49, 2003.

Publications in Books and Conference Volumes

"The Fourth Dimension: Financial Supervision and Economic Governance". In After the crisis: A new socio-economic settlement for the EU, London: Policy Network, 2009