Tobias Adrian

Tobias Adrian is the Financial Counsellor and Director of the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department. He leads the IMF's work on financial sector surveillance and capacity building, monetary and macroprudential policies, financial regulation, debt management, and capital markets. Prior to joining the IMF, he was a Senior Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Associate Director of the Research and Statistics Group. Mr. Adrian has taught at Princeton University and New York University, and has published in economics and finance journals, including the American Economic Review and the Journal of Finance. His research focuses on the aggregate consequences of capital market developments. He holds a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; an MSc from the London School of Economics; a Diplom from Goethe University Frankfurt; and a Maîtrise from Dauphine University Paris.

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Contents

• Rethinking Central Bank Communication in an Uncertain World
  • Published: August 26, 2026
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: In a world of frequent shocks, central bank communications should anchor expectations by explaining how policy responds to changing conditions, rather than committing to a fixed path
• How Central Banks Can Contain Financial Stability Risks as AI Accelerates Change
  • Published: July 23, 2026
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: Stronger oversight, better data, and deeper coordination are needed to safeguard faster and more interconnected markets
• Tokenization Can Change The World's Financial Architecture
  • Published: July 2, 2026
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: Policy choices will determine whether tokenized finance strengthens or fragments the financial system
• Financial Stability Risks Mount as Artificial Intelligence Fuels Cyberattacks
  • Published: May 7, 2026
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Tamas Gaidosch, Rangachary Ravikumar
  • Summary: Resilience, supervision, and international coordination are essential to safeguarding global financial markets as new AI tools enable attackers
• War in the Middle East Challenges Global Financial Stability
  • Published: April 14, 2026
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: Markets have been broadly orderly so far—but financial stability risks are elevated
• How the War in the Middle East Is Affecting Energy, Trade, and Finance
  • Published: March 30, 2026
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Jihad Azour, Nigel Chalk, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Alfred Kammer, Abebe Aemro Selassie, Krishna Srinivasan, Rodrigo Valdés
  • Summary: Energy prices, supply chains, and financial markets are the main transmission channels, but the regional effects will vary significantly
• Stock-Bond Diversification Offers Less Protection From Market Selloffs
  • Published: February 18, 2026
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Johannes Kramer, Sheheryar Malik
  • Summary: Diversification has become harder since 2020 as stocks and bonds tend to move in tandem during sharp selloffs, adding to financial stability concerns
• Global Economy Shakes Off Tariff Shock Amid Tech-Driven Boom
  • Published: January 19, 2026
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
  • Summary: But risks are rising, including from the concentration of tech investment and the negative effects of trade disruptions, which may build over time
• How Stablecoins Can Improve Payments and Global Finance
  • Published: December 4, 2025
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Marcello Miccoli, Nobuyasu Sugimoto
  • Summary: New technology can foster innovation and financial inclusion, or cause fragmentation and turbulence in many countries
• Growth of Nonbanks is Revealing New Financial Stability Risks
  • Published: October 14, 2025
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: Policymakers should strengthen oversight of nonbank financial intermediaries, whose increasing interconnectedness with banks could exacerbate adverse shocks
• Fostering Core Government Bond Market Resilience
  • Published: May 21, 2025
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Kleopatra Nikolaou, Jason Wu
  • Summary: Policymakers should broaden central clearing and monitor market-making, including by nonbank financial institutions, while dealers must continue to build resilience
• Enhancing Financial Stability for Resilience During Uncertain Times
  • Published: April 22, 2025
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: Risks have risen as financial conditions tightened, with key vulnerabilities ahead
• Global Financial Fragilities Mount Despite Rate Cuts and Buoyant Markets
  • Published: October 22, 2024
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Sheheryar Malik, Jason Wu
  • Summary: Increased investor risk-taking could fuel vulnerabilities
• Financial Stability Implications of Emerging Market Currency Developments
  • Published: July 22, 2024
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci, Jason Wu
  • Summary: Currencies have depreciated to varying degrees in emerging market economies as interest rate differentials with the United States narrowed
• Central Banks Must Remain Vigilant Along the Last Mile of Disinflation
  • Published: April 16, 2024
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: The decline of inflation could be stalling in some economies
• The Fiscal and Financial Risks of a High-Debt, Slow-Growth World
  • Published: March 28, 2024
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Vitor Gaspar, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
  • Summary: Higher long-term real interest rates, lower growth, and higher debt will put pressure on medium-term fiscal trends and financial stability
• More Work is Needed to Make Big Banks Resolvable
  • Published: March 18, 2024
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Marc Dobler
  • Summary: Last year's turmoil showed that further progress is required in a number of areas to ensure banks aren’t too big to fail
• Emerging Markets Navigate Global Interest Rate Volatility
  • Published: January 31, 2024
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci, Jason Wu
  • Summary: Major emerging markets have shown resilience to global rate gyrations, but more challenging times could be ahead
• Central Bank Digital Currency Development Enters the Next Phase
  • Published: November 20, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Dong He, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, Tao Sun
  • Summary: Many of the world’s monetary authorities are seeking more guidance on how best to pursue digital forms of central bank money
• Higher-for-Longer Interest Rate Environment is Squeezing More Borrowers
  • Published: October 10, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: Elevated inflation means central banks may have to keep policy rates higher in a way that stretches the capacity of borrowers to repay debt
• Fragile States Need Customized Support to Strengthen Institutions
  • Published: September 21, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Franck Bousquet, Dominique Desruelle, Vitor Gaspar, Bert Kroese
  • Summary: In the most vulnerable countries, strengthening state capacity must adapt to more frequent economic shocks, greater political instability, and fewer resources
• Financial Stability Needs Supervisors With the Ability and Will to Act
  • Published: September 18, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabiana Melo, Marina Moretti, Jay Surti
  • Summary: Supervisors in many countries face conditions that limit their effectiveness. Raising the bar requires independence with clear mandates, enhanced powers, greater resources, and more effective approaches.
• Tracking Global Financial Stability Risks From Higher Interest Rates
  • Published: August 8, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Hiroko Oura
  • Summary: Financial-sector assessments are gauging the effects of elevated borrowing costs, and the prospect that central banks may keep policy rates higher for longer than investors expect
• Inflation Remains Risk Confronting Financial Markets
  • Published: July 27, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci, Jason Wu
  • Summary: Central banks may keep interest rates higher for longer than currently priced; given investors’ benign inflation outlook and growing expectations for a soft landing, this could increase financial stability risks and weigh on growth
• Crypto Needs Comprehensive Policies to Protect Economies and Investors
  • Published: July 18, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Dong He, Arif Ismail, Marina Moretti
  • Summary: Establishing effective policies has become a priority for authorities amid the failure of some exchanges and collapse of certain crypto assets
• Central Banks Can Fend Off Financial Turmoil and Still Fight Inflation
  • Published: June 5, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
  • Summary: But there are trade-offs between price and financial stability during times of stress, especially when inflation is high
• Global Financial System Tested by Higher Inflation and Interest Rates
  • Published: April 11, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: Rapid monetary policy tightening after years of low rates is exposing fault lines
• Central Banks Must Enhance Transparency to Build Trust
  • Published: March 23, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Jihad Alwazir, Ashraf Khan, Dmytro Solohub
  • Summary: New tool offers a chance to improve transparency and safeguard independence
• Mounting Cyber Threats Mean Financial Firms Urgently Need Better Safeguards
  • Published: March 2, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Caio Ferreira
  • Summary: Regulators and supervisors must act now to strengthen the prudential framework
• Technology Behind Crypto Can Also Improve Payments, Providing a Public Good
  • Published: February 23, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli
  • Summary: A new kind of multilateral platform could improve cross-border payments, leveraging technological innovations for public policy objectives
• Looser Financial Conditions Pose Conundrum for Central Banks
  • Published: February 2, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Christopher Erceg, Fabio Natalucci
  • Summary: Despite sharp monetary policy tightening, financial conditions have eased around much of the globe, posing a challenge for central banks
• How Economies and Financial Systems Can Better Gauge Climate Risks
  • Published: January 4, 2023
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Vikram Haksar, Ivo Krznar
  • Summary: With the right tools, policymakers can help to manage the climate risks impacting economies and financial systems
• From Crypto to Central Bank Digital Currency, Podcast Tracks Fintech Boom
  • Published: December 21, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Tara Iyer
  • Summary: Our series examines how regulators, investors and central banks are embracing the promise—and bracing for the peril—of evolving financial technologies
• How Fiscal Restraint Can Help Fight Inflation
  • Published: November 21, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Vitor Gaspar
  • Summary: Fiscal policy can ease the task of monetary policy in reducing inflation while mitigating risks to financial stability
• Interest Rate Increases, Volatile Markets Signal Rising Financial Stability Risks
  • Published: October 11, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: Global financial conditions have tightened as central banks accelerate monetary policy normalization to keep rapid inflation from becoming entrenched
• Public Sector Must Play Major Role in Catalyzing Private Climate Finance
  • Published: August 18, 2022
  • Authors: Kristalina Georgieva, Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: Climate change is one of the most critical macroeconomic and financial policy challenges that IMF members face in coming decades.
• Central Banks Hike Interest Rates in Sync to Tame Inflation Pressures
  • Published: August 10, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci
  • Summary: During the pandemic, central banks in both advanced and emerging market economies took unprecedented measures to ease financial conditions and support the economic recovery, including interest-rate cuts and asset purchases.
• Soaring Inflation Puts Central Banks on a Difficult Journey
  • Published: August 1, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Christopher Erceg, Fabio Natalucci
  • Summary: Upside risks to the inflation outlook remain large, and more aggressive tightening may be needed if these risks materialize.
• Capital Markets Regulation Is Stronger, but Some Gaps Still Must be Closed
  • Published: June 29, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Jay Surti
  • Summary: Countries have made substantial progress toward implementing capital markets regulatory reform, but important gaps remain and new challenges have raised the bar.
• From 1980s Debt Crisis to Crypto Era, Financial Stability Monitoring is Always Evolving
  • Published: June 22, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci, Mahvash S. Qureshi
  • Summary: The IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report, introduced in 2002, was a step toward a more comprehensive assessment of risks in financial markets and cross-border capital flows.
• How Replacing Coal With Renewable Energy Could Pay For Itself
  • Published: June 8, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Patrick Bolton, Alissa M. Kleinnijenhuis
  • Summary: The world may gain an estimated $78 trillion over coming decades by making this energy transition.
• Financial Stability Risks Grow as War Complicates Push to Contain Inflation
  • Published: April 19, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: While no systemic event has materialized, the balance of risks has tilted more firmly to the downside.
• First Global Bank Stress Test Highlights Increased Financial Resilience
  • Published: April 6, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Vikram Haksar, Ivo Krznar
  • Summary: The world’s banking systems saw significant capital increases ahead of the pandemic and are resilient to very large shocks.
• How Africa Can Navigate Growing Monetary Policy Challenges
  • Published: April 4, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Gaston Gelos, David Hofman
  • Summary: Tools such as foreign exchange intervention can ease the effects of shocks but need to be carefully weighed against potential longer-term costs.
• Why the IMF is Updating its View on Capital Flows
  • Published: March 30, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, Rhoda Weeks-Brown
  • Summary: In some circumstances, countries should have the option of pre-emptively curbing debt inflows to safeguard macroeconomic and financial stability.
• Low Real Interest Rates Support Asset Prices, But Risks Are Rising
  • Published: January 27, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Nassira Abbas
  • Summary: A large and sudden jump in real interest rates could lead to a further selloff in stocks.
• Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Posing New Risks
  • Published: January 11, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Tara Iyer, Mahvash S. Qureshi
  • Summary: There’s a growing interconnectedness between virtual assets and financial markets.
• Emerging-Market Central Bank Asset Purchases Can Be Effective but Carry Risks
  • Published: January 5, 2022
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Christopher Erceg, Simon Gray, Ratna Sahay
  • Summary: Asset purchases can be an effective tool, but it is critical to minimize risks to central bank independence and price stability.
• Global Crypto Regulation Should be Comprehensive, Consistent, and Coordinated
  • Published: December 9, 2021
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Dong He, Aditya Narain
  • Summary: The IMF’s mandate is to safeguard the stability of the international monetary and financial system, and crypto assets are changing the system profoundly.
• Addressing Inflation Pressures Amid an Enduring Pandemic
  • Published: December 3, 2021
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Gita Gopinath
  • Summary: With inflationary pressures intensifying and Omicron generating new uncertainties, monetary policymakers are facing new and challenging tradeoffs.
• Uncertainty Grips Markets as Optimism Wanes
  • Published: October 12, 2021
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: Market sentiment has deteriorated since earlier this year amid still elevated financial vulnerabilities and mounting concerns about risks to inflation.
• To Safeguard Global Financial Stability, Boost the Resilience of Investment Funds
  • Published: September 17, 2021
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Antonio Garcia Pascual, Ranjit Singh, Jay Surti
• Making The Digital Money Revolution Work for All
  • Published: July 29, 2021
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli
  • Summary: History moves in uneven steps. Just as the telegraph erased time and distance in the 19th century, today’s innovations in digital money may bring significant changes in the way we lead our lives. The shift to electronic payments and social interactions brought on by the pandemic may cause similarly rapid and widespread transformations.
• Cryptoassets as National Currency? A Step Too Far
  • Published: July 26, 2021
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Rhoda Weeks-Brown
• Understanding the Rise in Long-Term Rates
  • Published: April 22, 2021
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Rohit Goel, Sheheryar Malik, Fabio Natalucci
  • Summary: The rise in long-term US interest rates has become a focus of global macro-financial concerns.
• An Asynchronous and Divergent Recovery May Put Financial Stability at Risk
  • Published: April 6, 2021
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
• Keeping it Local: A Secure and Stable Way to Access Financing
  • Published: March 12, 2021
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Thor Jonasson, Ayhan Kose, Anderson Silva
• Public and Private Money Can Coexist in the Digital Age
  • Published: February 18, 2021
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli
  • Summary: We value innovation and diversity—including in money. In the same day, we might pay by swiping a card, waving a phone, or clicking a mouse. Or we might hand over notes and coins, though in many countries increasingly less often.
• Financial Perils in Check for Now, Eyes Turn to Risk of Market Correction
  • Published: January 27, 2021
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci
• What to do When Low-for-Long Interest Rates are Lower and for Longer
  • Published: December 14, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
• Navigating Capital Flows—An Integrated Approach
  • Published: December 9, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Gita Gopinath, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu
• A Leap Forward on Cross-Border Payments
  • Published: October 19, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Kristalina Georgieva
• A Bridge to Economic Recovery: Be Aware of Financial Stability Risks
  • Published: October 13, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
• Transparency Makes Central Banks More Effective and Trusted
  • Published: July 30, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Ghiath Shabsigh, Ashraf Khan
• Toward an Integrated Policy Framework for Open Economies
  • Published: July 13, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Gita Gopinath
  • Summary: While capital mobility provides many benefits, capital flows to emerging market and developing economies are often volatile and depend critically on global financial conditions.
• Financial Conditions Have Eased, but Insolvencies Loom Large
  • Published: June 25, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci
• Combating COVID-19: How Should Banking Supervisors Respond?
  • Published: June 15, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu
• COVID-19 Worsens Pre-existing Financial Vulnerabilities
  • Published: May 22, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci
• COVID-19 Crisis Poses Threat to Financial Stability
  • Published: April 14, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci
• Maintaining Banking System Safety amid the COVID-19 Crisis
  • Published: March 31, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Aditya Narain
• Monetary and Financial Stability During the Coronavirus Outbreak
  • Published: March 11, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
  • Summary: This blog is part of a special series on the response to the coronavirus.
• Assessing Climate-Change Risk by Stress Testing for Financial Resilience
  • Published: February 5, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, James Morsink, Liliana Schumacher
• A Call for Vigilance After a Strong Year for Risky Assets
  • Published: January 28, 2020
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci
• Central Bank Digital Currencies: 4 Questions and Answers
  • Published: December 12, 2019
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli
• Central Bank Accountability, Independence, and Transparency
  • Published: November 25, 2019
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Ashraf Khan
  • Summary: In August 1694, the Bank of England opened for business with a staff of 19. The original Royal Charter, granted by King William and Queen Mary, tasked the Bank to “promote the public Good and Benefit of our People.”
• Lower for Longer: Rising Vulnerabilities May Put Growth at Risk
  • Published: October 16, 2019
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci
• From Stablecoins to Central Bank Digital Currencies
  • Published: September 26, 2019
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli
  • Summary: As privately issued stablecoins continue to encroach on more traditional forms of money—like cash and bank deposits—policymakers will not simply look on from the sidelines.
• Digital Currencies: The Rise of Stablecoins
  • Published: September 19, 2019
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli
• Monitoring Global Financial Stability
  • Published: August 26, 2019
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Dong He, Nellie Liang, Fabio Natalucci
• The Slope of the US Yield Curve and Risks to Growth
  • Published: July 2, 2019
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Rohit Goel, Fabio Natalucci
• Five Facts on Fintech
  • Published: June 27, 2019
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu
  • Summary: From artificial intelligence to mobile applications, technology helps to increase your access to secure and efficient financial products and services.
• Weak Spots in Global Financial System Could Amplify Shocks
  • Published: April 10, 2019
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci
• Let Bank Supervisors Do Their Jobs
  • Published: February 13, 2019
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Aditya Narain
• blog-bank-supervision
  • Published: February 12, 2019
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Aditya Narain
• Sounding the Alarm on Leveraged Lending
  • Published: November 15, 2018
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Fabio Natalucci, Thomas Piontek
• Chart of the Week: Financial Reform Report Card
  • Published: October 29, 2018
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Dirk Jan Grolleman, Anastasiia Morozova
• The Financial System Is Stronger, but New Vulnerabilities Have Emerged in the Decade Since the Crisis
  • Published: October 9, 2018
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
• A Bumpy Road Ahead for the Global Financial System
  • Published: April 18, 2018
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
• Financial Stability Improves, But Rising Vulnerabilities Could Put Growth at Risk
  • Published: October 11, 2017
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
• Why Talk of Bank Capital ‘Floors’ Is Raising the Roof
  • Published: June 8, 2017
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Aditya Narain
• Global Financial Stability Improves; Getting the Policy Mix Right to Sustain Gains
  • Published: April 19, 2017
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian
• Why International Financial Cooperation Remains Essential
  • Published: March 23, 2017
  • Authors: Tobias Adrian, Maurice Obstfeld

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Source: https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/authors/tobias%20adrian