Remarks by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to G20 on Economic Impact of COVID-19

IMF News, February 22, 2020

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In January, the IMF projected global growth to strengthen from 2.9 percent last year to 3.3 percent this year.
The WHO’s assessment: with strong and coordinated measures, the spread of the virus in China and globally can yet be contained and the human tragedy arrested.
The uncertainties are "too great to permit reliable forecasting." Many scenarios can play out, depending on how quickly the virus is contained and how fast the Chinese and other affected economies return to normal.

Assumption: announced policies are implemented and China’s economy would return to normal in the second quarter.
China 2020 growth in this baseline: 5.6 percent.
This is 0.4 percentage points lower than the January WEO Update.
Global growth impact in this baseline: about 0.1 percentage points lower.

More dire scenarios considered where the spread of the virus continues for longer and more globally, producing more protracted growth consequences.
The timing and severity of outcomes depend on:
- How quickly the virus is contained.
- How fast affected economies return to normal.
Particular risks flagged: fragile states and countries with weak health care systems.

Chinese authorities are taking crisis measures including liquidity provision, fiscal measures, and financial support.
The IMF has engaged with Chinese officials (including Governor Yi Gang) and has "assured them of our support for these policy measures."
Global cooperation is deemed essential to contain COVID-19 and its economic impact, especially if the outbreak becomes more persistent and widespread.
IMF readiness to help includes the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust, which "can provide grants for debt relief to our poorest and most vulnerable members."

Remarks by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to G20 on Economic Impact of COVID-19, February 22, 2020