June 30, 2025
PRESS OFFICER: Kwabena Akuamoah-Boateng
Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the second review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for Togo. The Board’s decision enables the immediate disbursement of about SDR 44.0 million (about US$ 60.5 million), which will be used for budget support. The ECF-arrangement provides overall financing of SDR 293.60 million (about US$ 403.4 million) on favorable terms.
The IMF approved the ECF arrangement in March 2024 to help the authorities address the legacies of shocks experienced since 2020, notably the COVID pandemic and the increase in global food and fuel prices. The Togolese authorities were able to lessen the impacts of these shocks on the Togolese population, but this came at the price of large fiscal deficits and a rapidly rising public debt burden. The IMF-supported government program aims to (i) make growth more inclusive while strengthening debt sustainability, and (ii) implement structural reforms to support growth and limit fiscal and financial sector risks. The IMF Executive Board completed the first ECF review in December 2024.
The medium-term outlook is broadly favorable, with continued robust growth. Economic growth reached an estimated 5.3 percent in 2024 and is projected at 5.2 percent in 2025 and 5.5 percent per year thereafter, according to IMF staff projections, barring major adverse shocks. Headline inflation eased to 2.6 percent in April 2025 and core inflation (which excludes the prices of energy and fresh products) fell to 1.3 percent (annual averages).
However, the outlook is subject to high risks. In particular, insecurity from the presence of terrorist groups at the country’s northern border continues, putting pressure on spending. The authorities face challenging trade-offs between the need to achieve fiscal consolidation to lower the debt burden and the need to maintain security, enhance inclusion, and support growth.
Implementation of the IMF-supported program has been broadly satisfactory. The authorities met all quantitative targets at end-December 2024 except for the performance criterion on the fiscal balance. A notable success has been that the authorities raised tax revenue in 2024 as planned and pushed non-tax revenue beyond expectations. At the same time, higher-than-budgeted spending pushed debt higher. The authorities also met all but one structural benchmark due since the completion of the first ECF review, thanks to public financial management and banking sector reforms.
At the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion, Mr. Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director, and Acting Chair, made the following statement:
“The authorities have implemented the IMF-supported program in an overall satisfactory manner in an environment marked by continued security challenges, tight financing conditions, and elevated global uncertainty. Among other achievements, the authorities mobilized tax revenue in line with targets, while non-tax revenue exceeded projections.
“Nonetheless, progress on fiscal consolidation has been slower than programmed due to operations the authorities recorded below the line, resulting in faster-than-expected debt accumulation. The authorities’ efforts to address this development, in particular the publication of an innovative note on budget execution and debt accumulation, are welcome.
“Against this background, the authorities are encouraged to redouble their efforts at fiscal consolidation while preserving growth and strengthening inclusion. The IMF approves the authorities’ request for a limited relaxation of the fiscal deficit target for 2024 and for delaying the goal of lowering the present value of debt below 55 percent of GDP by one year, to 2027. These modifications appropriately balance the need to respond to security threats against the need to strengthen debt sustainability.
“Further, the authorities are encouraged to continue efforts to enhance revenue while making taxation more efficient, supported by a timely elaboration of a medium-term revenue mobilization strategy. Reforms to improve the efficiency of spending and strengthen the effectiveness of the social safety net, including phasing out fuel subsidies, will also be important. Further, it will be important to strengthen electricity and water provision, including raising tariffs to ensure cost recovery in combination with measures to protect the most vulnerable.
“The IMF welcomes the authorities’ efforts to reduce financial sector and fiscal risks by recapitalizing the remaining state-owned bank, which have boosted the bank’s compliance with regulatory norms. Further efforts will be needed to address the remaining breaches of regulatory norms and to restructure the bank’s operations to ensure its stability and profitability.
“Finally, efforts to strengthen governance will be critical for nurturing the business environment and supporting sustainable growth. The authorities’ commitment to publishing the planned Governance Diagnostic Assessment is very welcome. The authorities should also align asset and income declarations regime with international standards.”
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Togo: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2023–27 |
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|
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
|
|
Estimates |
Projections |
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|
Real GDP |
5.6 |
5.3 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
|
Real GDP per capita |
3.1 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
GDP deflator |
2.9 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
Consumer price index (annual average) |
5.3 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
GDP (CFAF billions) |
5,507 |
5,927 |
6,360 |
6,843 |
7,364 |
|
Exchange rate CFAF/US$ (annual average level) |
606 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
Real effective exchange rate (appreciation = –) |
-8.2 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
|
Terms of trade (deterioration = –) |
2.5 |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
|
Monetary survey |
|||||
|
Net foreign assets |
2.0 |
1.3 |
3.6 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
|
Net credit to government |
1.2 |
8.6 |
2.6 |
-1.3 |
-0.1 |
|
Credit to nongovernment sector |
2.9 |
3.6 |
1.4 |
7.4 |
7.0 |
|
Broad money (M2) |
6.5 |
8.5 |
7.3 |
7.6 |
7.6 |
|
Velocity (GDP/end-of-period M2) |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
Investment and savings |
|||||
|
Gross domestic investment |
28.0 |
26.8 |
25.6 |
24.4 |
25.3 |
|
Government |
11.5 |
10.1 |
8.5 |
7.1 |
7.8 |
|
Nongovernment |
16.5 |
16.7 |
17.1 |
17.3 |
17.5 |
|
Gross national savings |
24.0 |
23.7 |
23.2 |
23.0 |
24.3 |
|
Government |
4.8 |
2.7 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
|
Nongovernment |
19.2 |
20.9 |
18.7 |
18.8 |
19.5 |
|
Government budget |
|||||
|
Total revenue and grants |
19.8 |
19.0 |
18.8 |
18.5 |
19.0 |
|
Revenue |
16.8 |
17.0 |
16.6 |
17.1 |
17.6 |
|
Tax revenue |
14.8 |
14.9 |
15.4 |
15.9 |
16.4 |
|
Expenditure and net lending |
26.6 |
26.4 |
22.7 |
21.5 |
22.0 |
|
Expenditure and net lending (excl. banking sector operations) |
26.6 |
25.4 |
22.3 |
21.5 |
22.0 |
|
Primary balance (commitment basis, incl. grants) |
-3.9 |
-4.5 |
-1.2 |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
|
Overall balance (commitment basis, incl. grants, excl. banking sector operations) |
-6.7 |
-6.4 |
-3.5 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
|
Overall balance (commitment basis, incl. grants) |
-6.7 |
-7.4 |
-3.9 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
|
Primary balance (cash basis, incl. grants) |
-3.9 |
-4.5 |
-1.2 |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
|
Overall balance (cash basis, incl. grants, excl. banking sector operations) |
-6.7 |
-6.4 |
-3.5 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
|
Overall balance (cash basis, incl. grants) |
-6.7 |
-7.4 |
-3.9 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
|
External sector |
|||||
|
Current account balance |
-4.0 |
-3.2 |
-2.3 |
-1.4 |
-1.0 |
|
Exports (goods and services) |
26.3 |
25.5 |
25.5 |
25.5 |
25.7 |
|
Imports (goods and services) |
-37.8 |
-35.9 |
-34.3 |
-32.8 |
-32.5 |
|
External public debt1 |
26.3 |
30.4 |
32.8 |
32.1 |
32.7 |
|
External public debt service (percent of exports)1 |
7.7 |
10.0 |
14.8 |
15.0 |
8.1 |
|
Domestic public debt2 |
42.3 |
41.7 |
37.5 |
36.6 |
34.3 |
|
Total public debt3 |
68.6 |
72.1 |
70.2 |
68.7 |
66.9 |
|
Total public debt (excluding SOEs)4 |
67.3 |
71.2 |
69.6 |
68.2 |
66.6 |
|
Present value of total public debt3 |
62.3 |
63.2 |
60.0 |
57.0 |
54.0 |
|
Sources: Togolese authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections. |
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|
1 Includes state-owned enterprise external debt. |
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|
2 Includes domestic arrears and state-owned enterprise domestic debt. |
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|
3 Includes domestic arrears and state-owned enterprise debt. |
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|
4 Includes domestic arrears. |
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