IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Uzbekistan
IMF News, November 26, 2025
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Bibliographic details
- Published: November 26, 2025
Mission summary
- An International Monetary Fund staff team, led by Mr. Yasser Abdih, met with Uzbekistan’s authorities from November 17 to 25, 2025 to discuss economic developments, the outlook, and policy priorities.
- End-of-Mission press release: views expressed are those of IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion.
Economic performance and outlook
- Findings:
- Real GDP rose by 7.6 percent year-over-year (y/y) in the first three quarters of 2025 driven by buoyant investment and household consumption.
- Headline inflation eased to 7.8 percent y/y at end-October 2025.
- Core inflation eased to 6.6 percent y/y at end-October 2025.
- Household lending expanded by 23 percent y/y in September 2025 from a low base; corporate lending grew modestly.
- The external current account deficit narrowed markedly in the first half of 2025, underpinned by high gold prices, robust non-gold exports, and remittance inflows.
- At end-October 2025, international reserves remained ample at 12 months of prospective imports.
- Projections and risks:
- Real GDP growth is expected to exceed 7 percent in 2025 and remain strong at around 6 percent in 2026, supported by robust consumption and investment.
- Inflation is projected to gradually converge to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) 5 percent target by end-2027.
- Downside external risks: uncertain global outlook, geopolitics, and commodity price volatility.
- Upside factors: faster structural reform implementation, stronger capital and remittance inflows, and higher gold prices.
- Domestic risks: procyclical spending of higher-than-budgeted revenues (including from gold) and pressures to expand directed and preferential lending programs, which could lead to overheating.
Fiscal policy recommendations
- Findings:
- Authorities remain committed to the consolidated fiscal deficit target of 3 percent of GDP in 2025 and in 2026.
- The overperformance of revenue in 2025 has allowed for higher expenditures.
- Recommendations:
- Minimize government expenditure increases in response to higher-than-budgeted revenues to:
- Contain inflationary demand pressures.
- Prevent unwarranted real exchange rate appreciation.
- Avoid an abrupt adjustment that may exacerbate macroeconomic volatility should gold prices fall.
- Build fiscal buffers.
- Broaden the tax base and raise the tax revenue-to-GDP ratio.
- Implement the medium-term revenue strategy and adopt the Tax Committee Reform and the Strategy for Combating the Shadow Economy.
- Limit new tax incentives; introduce a methodology to measure tax expenditures and publish tax expenditures in the budget.
- Strengthen on-site tax audits; bolster the power of the tax administration to enforce the tax code while respecting taxpayers’ rights.
Monetary policy recommendations
- Findings:
- The CBU has maintained the policy rate at 14 percent since March 2025.
- Headline and core inflation, and inflation expectations, have fallen but remain above target.
- There has been a welcome move towards more exchange rate flexibility since April 2025.
- Recommendations:
- Maintain a tight monetary stance until inflation is on a firm downward trend towards the 5 percent target.
- Sustain exchange rate flexibility to support inflation targeting and enhance resilience to external shocks.
Financial sector and structural reforms
- Financial sector:
- Recommendation to accelerate financial sector reform, including the ongoing phase-out of directed and preferential lending.
- CBU’s plan to strengthen bank regulation and supervision following the 2025 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) recommendations should be complemented by a broader roadmap covering the full set of FSAP recommendations, including those under the Ministry of Economy and Finance and other regulators.
- Roadmap would facilitate proper sequencing of reforms and provision of technical assistance.
- Structural reforms:
- Continue privatizing and restructuring major SOEs, improve their governance, condition any financial support on credible restructuring plans.
- Strengthen competition and improve the business environment to foster a more dynamic private sector and reduce the state’s economic footprint.
- Sustain progress towards WTO accession, targeted for March 2026.
- Adopt and implement governance and anti-corruption reforms, including the conflict-of-interest law and progress towards parliamentary discussion of the Whistleblower Protection and Asset Declaration laws.
Key statistics (Selected Economic Indicators, 2024-26)
- National income
- Real GDP growth (percent change): 2024: 6.7; 2025: 7.3; 2026 Proj: 6.2
- Nominal GDP (in trillions of Sum): 2024: 1,535; 2025: 1,826; 2026 Proj: 2,122
- GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars): 2024: 3,265; 2025: 3,845; 2026 Proj: 4,464
- Population (in millions): 2024: 37.2; 2025: 38.0; 2026 Proj: 38.7
- Prices (percent change)
- Consumer price inflation (end of period): 2024: 9.8; 2025: 8.0; 2026 Proj: 6.5
- GDP deflator: 2024: 14.1; 2025: 10.8; 2026 Proj: 9.4
- External sector (percent of GDP)
- Current account balance: 2024: -4.7; 2025: -3.3; 2026 Proj: -3.9
- External debt: 2024: 53.7; 2025: 50.0; 2026 Proj: 47.8
- Exchange rate (in sums per U.S. dollar; end of period): 2024: 12,920; 2025: …
- Government finance
- Consolidated budget revenues: 2024: 24.9; 2025: 26.2; 2026 Proj: 26.1
- Consolidated budget expenditures: 2024: 28.0; 2025: 29.2; 2026 Proj: 29.1
- Consolidated budget balance: 2024: -3.1; 2025: -3.0
- Adjusted revenues 2/ 3/: 2024: 23.9; 2025: 25.0; 2026 Proj: 24.5
- Adjusted expenditures 2/ 3/: 2024: 27.4; 2025: 26.7; 2026 Proj: (not separately listed)
- Adjusted fiscal balance: 2024: -2.2; 2025: -2.4
- Policy-based lending 3/: 2024: 0.9; 2025: 0.6; 2026 Proj: 0.8
- Overall fiscal balance / Public debt: 2024: 30.9; 2025: 28.3
- Money and credit
- Reserve money: 2024: 9.5; 2025: 11.9; 2026 Proj: 10.0
- Broad money: 2024: 30.6; 2025: 23.3; 2026 Proj: 18.9
- Credit to the economy: 2024: 14.0; 2025: 15.1; 2026 Proj: 16.5
Sources: Country authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. Incorporates the November 2025 revision to national accounts data.